Corn and soybeans drift lower in the early morning trade, while wheat tries to find it’s footing. Will seasonal tendencies come into play this year?
Corn
Technicals (December)
December corn futures failed to hold ground at our pivot point in yesterday’s trade which has opened the door for a drop into our 3-star support pocket, 401-403 3/4. Just below this is the spike low from the recent USDA report at 397. A failure to hold here and a retest of the lows could be in the cards. With that said, we are in the camp that a little harvest pressure into the end of the month and quarter could setup for a good buying opportunity once we turn the calendar into October, which is historically friendly for the market (past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).
Technical Levels of Importance
- Resistance: 413 1/2-416, 423 3/4-426 1/2*
- Pivot: 408 1/2-409
- Support: 401-403 3/4, 380-385
Export Sales
Net sales of 847,400 MT (33,360,655 bushels) for 2024/2025. This was in line with expectations and above last week’s 666,500 MT. The image to the right is a breakdown of the biggest buys in this week’s report.
Seasonal Tendency Update
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results
Below is a look at this year’s price action (black line) VS price averages for December corn over 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year periods. Historically the market makes an attempt at a harvest low between now and the first week of October. Keep in mind that we do have a quarterly USDA report on September 30th.
Soybeans
Technicals (November)
November soybean futures have continued to consolidate through this week’s trade, treading water near the 50-day moving average. First resistance remains intact from 1023-1024 1/2. On the support side, the Bulls want to defend 1000-1006 1/2. There is additional support just below here coming in from 991-995 1/2. A violation of this support pocket and a drop back to the contract low would not be out of the question. Seasonally, from now until the first week of October is a tough time of year for the market to stage a meaningful rally.
Technical Levels of Importance
- Resistance: 1023-1024 1/2, 1031 3/4-1035
- Pivot: 1000-1006 1/2
- Support: 991-995 1/2, 973 1/4, 950-955 1/4*
| Export Sales Net sales of 1,748,100 MT (64,231,661 bushels) for 2024/2025. This was above the top end of expectations and above last week’s 1,474,000 MT. The USDA also noted that last week’s sale of 88.4 MT to Argentina was an error, that was sown as a cancellation in this week’s report. Net sales of 8,400 MT for 2025/2026 were reported |
Seasonal Tendency Update
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results
Below is a look at this year’s price action (black line) VS price averages for November soybeans over 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year periods. Historically the market struggles in the back half of September before attempting to make a harvest low in early October. Weather in Brazil could be the catalyst to make or break that trend as dry weather raises concerns. Keep in mind that we do have a quarterly USDA report on September 30th.
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