Can the Livestock Rally Continue?

Livestock Round Up

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Cattle and lean hogs were strong through last week’s trade. Can we see the momentum continue through the start of this week’s trade?

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Live Cattle (December)

December live cattle futures broke out on Friday, which caught us a little off guard because it was a head of a Cattle on Feed report. The report ended up being pretty neutral, so it’ll be interesting to see how prices respond through this morning’s trade. 4-star resistance remains intact from last week’s reports, 183.57-184.22. A close above there could spark another “whoosh” higher. With that said, if you’re a hedger and need to protect price, this would be a spot to consider doing so. Options can be a great tool in this environment to get that protection while keeping the upside open.

Resistance: 181.325-182.07, 183.57-184.225*
Pivot: 179.10-179.97
Support: 175.72-176.10, 173.17-173.87


Cattle on Feed Snapshot

  • On Feed: 101%, in line with estimates
  • Placements: 99%, in line with estimates
  • Marketings: 96%, in line with estimates

Commitment of Traders Update
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed another week of flatlining for Fund positioning, important to note that the data is through Tuesday, so it does not include positioning with the rally we saw at the end of the week. Funds are net long roughly 44k futures/options contracts. We view this as a historically neutral position.

Feeder Cattle (October)
October feeder cattle futures traded on both sides of unchanged on Friday, notching out a small gain but with significantly less conviction than that of live cattle. First resistance remains intact at 245.90. Seasonal tendencies have had us less optimistic on a longer-term feeder cattle rally. Grains are firm in the early morning trade and are knocking on the door of resistance, if strength persists there it could be an added headwind to the market.

  • Resistance: 245.90, 249.85-250.80*
  • Pivot: 242.75-243.45
  • Support: 239.62-240.15, 236.20-236.75*


Commitment of Traders Update
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds were net buyers of roughly 1.7k futures/options contracts, trimming their net short position to just 870 contracts.

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

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Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points that can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

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This message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.

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