WTI Crude Oil (November)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 71.56, up 1.19
Yesterday’s risk-on rally was driven by Chinese stimulus announcements Monday night. The sweeping stimulus spurred commodity buying across the metals and the Crude Oil complex. Chinese equities rallied once again last night, showing strong follow-through.
In the Middle East, hopes for de-escalation have been all but dashed. Leading up to the UN General Assembly, Iran’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, spurred some hopes that he was open to beginning talks with Israel. But, during Pezeshkian’s address to the UN, he simultaneously threatened retaliation for the Lebanon strikes and pinned cooperation with the West on a return to the nuclear accords and the lifting of sanctions. For now, the path forward in the Middle East looks like escalation.
In other news, Tropical Storm Helene looks to strengthen into a hurricane as it enters the Gulf and veers towards Florida, disrupting production.
The API Inventory report last night showed (in bbls):
- Crude: -4,340k
- Gasoline: -3,440k
- Distillates: -1,120k
Estimates for today’s EIA report are as follows (in bbls):
- Crude: -938k
- Gasoline: -118k
- Distillates: -1,217k
Estimates shown above are bullish on the complex if realized.
WTI is trading lower by -1.41 this morning to 70.14 after hitting resistance around the 72.00 level. Brent has also failed around the key 75.00 mark for now.
Also, the UN General Assembly is set to discuss the Libya situation today which may result in some bearish headlines.
While we remain bullish in the medium term, we caution against aggressive new longs at these levels. Overnight weakness has breached supports from 71 down to 70 with a low of 69.86. Although we have key support at…
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