WTI Crude Oil futures traded higher overnight but failed into resistance.

Energy Update

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[Chart Z4-H5 Heating Oil calendar spread proposed Friday]

WTI Crude Oil (November)

Last week’s close: Settled at 68.18, down 0.51 on Friday and 2.82 on the week

WTI finished off last week’s lows, rallying Thursday and Friday to settle back into the meat of its trading range.

A report by the Financial Times last week stated that Saudi Arabia was contemplating increasing production in order to gain market share. Later in the week, rival factions in Libya announced an agreement regarding replacing their central bank head. This agreement would seemingly bring back their offline crude barrels [550k bpd estimated offline]. The two headlines together drove WTI markets to a low of 66.95 for the week from a high of 72 on Tuesday.

This morning, WTI is up +0.08 to 68.24. Outside of China (CSI 300 +8.48%), the rest of the world trade is tilting slightly risk-off this morning.

For the week, OPEC meets on Wednesday for their monthly monitoring meeting, and no new proposals are slated to be discussed outside of current plants for output hikes starting in December. Nonetheless, OPEC meetings can always yield surprises, and attention will be paid to any shift in the pace of scheduled output hikes. The group plans to restore around 2.2mln bpd in monthly tranches between December and late 2025.

Late last week, more reporting on the Financial Times article surfaced, with sources saying that the veiled threats from the Saudis on market share were more aimed at producers within the group who have failed to cut production and have repeatedly produced above their quota [Iraq and Kazakhstan].

Other factors to watch for the week include Israel – Hezbollah’s growing conflict. The latest news on that front includes the assassination of Hezbollah’s newest appointed leader, Hassan Nasrallah, on Friday, which has resulted in continued saber rattling out of Iran. We are watching closely for any signs of direct conflict between Iran and Israel, which could escalate the conflict considerably.

We still like holding the HO Z4-H5 calendar spread we proposed on Friday morning, [-0.81] now trading at -0.51. Regarding flat prices, we advise caution as uncertainty remains around Saudi Arabia’s intentions, and it is in an OPEC meeting this week.

WTI Crude Oil futures traded higher overnight but failed into resistance, aligning with the lows from early last week. Accordingly, we widened this major three-star range to 69.23-69.69. Our momentum indicator aligns at our Pivot and point of balance, and the bulls must continue action above here at….

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

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