Grain markets were lower overnight but are attempting to find some traction in the early morning trade, here are a few things we are looking at as we start a new month of trade.
Corn
Technicals (December)
December corn futures traded to their highest level since the last quarterly report (at the end of June), where prices began the secondary breakdown. Resistance to start a new month of trade comes in from 426 1/2-428. If the Bulls can chew through and close above this pocket, it could open the door for a push into the low 440’s. Our pivot pocket was tested and held yesterday, keeping it intact today, we’ve outlined that as 413 1/2-416. A break and close back below here could halt the technical momentum and lead to technical selling pressure.
Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 426 1/2-428, 441-443
Pivot: 413 1/2-416
Support: 408 1/2-409, 401-403 3/4
Volatility
With corn volatility near the lows since the start of the year, options may be a tool to consider using whether that be as an outright position or to hedge futures. Our trade desk is here to help discuss strategies around your individual objectives.
Seasonal Tendencies
The start of October has historically offered argument of a harvest low being solidified, whether or not that rings true this year is TBD. The chart below represents price averages for December corn over 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year periods. If you want more information on the back tested data for a specific time frame or a specific contract, please reach out to our trade desk.
*Past performance isn’t necessarily indicative of future results.
Soybeans
Technicals (November)
Soybeans took out the previous day’s high by one tick and reversed to finish roughly 15 cents off those levels. The market saw follow through selling in the overnight trade but started to come off the lows around 5am CT. Our pivot pocket from 1041 3/4-1042 will be watched closely through today’s trade. A failure here could trigger additional technical selling. On the resistance side, a retest of the highs from the last two sessions would likely warrant a breakout to 1082 1/2-1086 3/4.
Technical Levels of Importance
- Resistance: 1069 1/2-1069 3/4, 1082 1/2-1086 3/4
- Pivot: 1041 3/4-1042
- Support: 1031 3/4-1035, 1023-1024 1/2**, 1000-1006 1/2
Seasonal Tendencies
The start of October has historically been a friendly time of year for soybeans, as depicted by the chart below which represents price averages for November soybeans over 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year periods. If you’re into trading seasonal tendencies, you may make a note that the recent run higher was very counter seasonal. If you want more information on the back tested data for a specific time frame or a specific contract, please reach out to our trade desk.
*Past performance isn’t necessarily indicative of future results.
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