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Corn and wheat futures have had an impressive rally recently while soybeans have struggled to follow along. Markets are catching their breath in the early morning trade, here are a few things we are looking at.
Corn
Technicals (December)
December corn futures were able to continue their climb higher yesterday, but the market seems to be struggling to stage a secondary rally above 433-435 which was the breakdown point from the quarterly report in June. The chart remains constructive, but If the market continues to stall here, we could see some consolidation and a retracement lower into next week’s WASDE report. Short, dated options as an outright position or a hedge against futures could be something to consider with volatility still lingering near the lower end of the year’s range. Our trade desk is here to help with tailored strategies: 312-278-0500.
Weekly export inspections will be out at 7:30am CT. For corn, expectations range from 600,000 – 1,000,000 metric tons, the average at 831k. Last week’s report was soft at 535k.
Technical Levels of Importance
- Resistance: 441-443*
- Pivot:433-435
- Support: 426 1/2-428, 413 1/2-416, 408 1/2-409
Seasonal Tendencies
The start of October has historically offered argument of a harvest low being solidified, whether or not that rings true this year is TBD. The chart below represents price averages for December corn over 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year periods. If you want more information on the back tested data for a specific time frame or a specific contract, please reach out to our trade desk.
*Past performance isn’t necessarily indicative of future results.
Wheat
Technicals (December)
December wheat futures have added on to their impressive rally in yesterday’s trade. The market broke out above our resistance pocket from 596-600 which as we mentioned in yesterday’s report: “we could see our next resistance pocket tested sooner rather than later, we’ve outlined that as 613-615.”. Prices are in that price pocket this morning as we see some signs of the market catching it’s breath. The recent run has brought the RSI to levels not seen in sometime. We like the prospects of higher prices still but would welcome a pullback from these levels. Previous resistance will now act as support from 596-600. If the Bulls can chew through resistance there’s not a lot in the way until you get to 648 1/4-650+.
Weekly export inspections will be out at 7:30am CT. For corn, expectations range from 150,000 – 450,000 metric tons, the average at 297,000. Last week’s report was weak at 169,000.
Technical Levels of Importance
- Resistance: 629 1/2-634, 648 1/4-650*
- Pivot: 613-615
- Support: 596-600, 582 3/4-584 1/4
Seasonal Tendencies
The chart below represents price averages for December wheat over 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year periods. If you want more information on the back tested data for a specific time frame or a specific contract, please reach out to our trade desk.
*Past performance isn’t necessarily indicative of future results.
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