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Is Geopolitical Tension the Fuel Behind WTI Crude’s Rally?

Energy Update

/ by BlueLineFutures | Leave a comment

OPEC+ meets amid geopolitical tensions stoking higher prices and fears of Saudi Arabia desiring to regain market share, which are causing headwinds. Bill Baruch joined Yahoo Finance to give his thoughts.

November WTI Crude Oil

Yesterday’s Close: Settled at 70.10, up +0.27 [+0.39%]

WTI Crude Oil futures are up +1.44 [+2.07%] this morning. The crude complex continues to rally off heightened tensions in the middle east as Israel – Iran tensions escalate. Netanyahu has promised retaliation for direct missile strikes by Iran while the international community urges restraint. The worry in the oil complex is that Israel will hit Iranian oil infrastructure, and the worst-case scenario is that they target Iranian nuclear sites.

OPEC’s JMMC meeting concluded yesterday, and the focus was on compliance. It’s clear now that Saudi Arabia’s “market share” comments that drove markets lower last week were an attempt to reign in overproduction in Iraq, Kazakhstan, and Russia. The comments viewed in this light are friendlier crude pricing as opposed to a goal of gaining global market share.

Yesterday’s EIA report featured a surprise build in Crude stocks, which capped yesterday’s rally. EIA report figure’s as follows (bbls):

  • Crude: +3,889k vs -1,430k est
  • Gasoline: +1,119k vs +200k est
  • Distillate: -1,284k vs -2,000k est

Bullish sentiment in crude is gaining and chatter of new fiscal stimulus out of China is spreading. Risk in the market remains skewed to the upside as markets keep a close eye on the geopolitical situation.

WTI Crude Oil futures slipped sharply from major three-star resistance at 72.40-72.65 yesterday before responding perfectly to rare four-star support at 69.69-69.83, and things have consolidated. We are watching key resistance at…

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

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