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E-mini S&P (December) / E-mini NQ (December)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 5749.50, down 10.75
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 19,990.25, down
The September Nonfarm Payroll report is due at 7:30 am CT. Expectations are for 147k jobs and Wage Growth to slow a touch at 0.3% m/m from 0.4%. In August, Wage Growth y/y rose to 3.8% from a cycle low of 3.6% and is expected to stay flat. The Unemployment Rate, which we know the Federal Reserve is watching, is expected to be unchanged at 4.2%, down from the cycle high in August of 4.3%. We will also be watching the U6 Unemployment Rate closely. This includes those who are underemployed and has risen from a cycle low of 6.6% in April 2023 to a high of 7.9% in August.
Heavy price action in both the E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ for three consecutive days has responded to rare major four-star support at 5721.25-5726 and 19,783-19,860. We expect quite a volatility in the aftermath of Nonfarm Payroll, therefore, if this significant level of support is violated, it is a matter of decisiveness intraday and whether or not the indices close below. In the case of less volatility, our Pivot and point of balance will help be a market on whether momentum is shifting for tests of the lower-end or upper-end of the range. Outside of first resistance, which has been probed, a close above major three-star resistance overhead could quickly shift the upper-hand to the bulls in the E-mini S&P at…
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