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A Choppy Grain Trade Ahead of Tomorrow’s WASDE Report

Grain Express

/ by BlueLineFutures | Leave a comment

Grain markets have had a two-sided trade through the first half of the week. These are a few things you need to know ahead of tomorrow’s WASDE report.

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Corn

Recap

Dec Corn futures settled at 421’0 Wednesday, up 0’2, in mixed trade. Combined volume was 277,091, with the Dec contract seeing 148,815 traded. Overall open interest lost 7,274 (0.49%) to 1,487,392. Dec decreased by 2,355, or 0.32%, finishing at 729,131.

CME CVOL Update (Corn)
Corn implied volatility closed moderately lower as CVL decreased by 0.22 to end at 20.23. Off 0.14%, historical volatility (as measured by the 30-day) closed the session at 17.57%. The CVL Skew ended the session moderately lower, off 0.53 to close at a one week low of 1.47.

Popular Options
Option volumes were highest for the Dec 420 call (2,980) and the March 350 put (3,001). Calls with the highest open interest are the Dec 430 strike (30,479), and for the puts are the Dec 400 strike (31,917).

Technicals
The meat grinder is in full effect as futures chop around in tighter ranges ahead of tomorrow’s WASDE report. With yesterday’s quiet inside day (trading within the previous day’s range) many of our technical support and resistance levels remain intact, along with our bias that favors shorter term traders on both sides of the market (buyers and sellers). If you want to express in opinion in the market into tomorrow’s WASDE report, using futures with options as a hedge may be something to consider. Freel free to call our trade desk to discuss: 312-278-0500.

Technical Levels of Importance

  • Resistance: 433-435, 441-443
  • Pivot:425-426 1/2
  • Support: 413 1/2-416, 406 3/4 1/2-408 1/2, 397-401 1/4


Notes

  • Wednesday Flash Sale
    • Private exporters reported sales of 126,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2024/2025 marketing year.
  • Ethanol
    • Yesterday’s weekly ethanol report showed ethanol production at 1.038 million barrels per day, up 23k. Ethanol stocks dropped 1.305 million to 22.154mm.
    • Weekly Export Sales Estimates (out at 7:30am CT)
      900,000-1,700,000 MT. Last week’s report came in at 1,684,000 MT.


WASDE Estimates

  • Yield: 183.5 VS September 183.6
  • Harvested Area: 82.7, Unchanged from Sep.
  • Production: 15.173 VS September 15.283


Soybeans

Recap

Wednesday’s Soybean market was higher with the Nov contract adding 4’0 to 1020’2. Combined volume was a heavy 356,796, with the Nov contract seeing 185,293 traded. Overall open interest increased 7,774 (0.88%), with Nov dropping by 15,089, or 4.27%, to 338,485.

CME CVOL Update (Soybeans)
Soybean implied volatility ended the day up as SVL rose 0.44 to settle at 19.74. Lower by 0.26%, historical volatility (as measured by the 30-day) settled at 18.57%. The SVL Skew was moderately higher with the 30-day up by 0.2, finishing the session at a one month high of 1.13.

Popular Options
The Nov 1020 put saw the most traded with 4,405 contracts done. Options with the largest open interest are the Nov 1040 call with 18,394, and the Nov 1000 put with 25,836.

Technicals
November soybeans traded on both sides of unchanged yesterday. The fact that the market was able to defend the previous day’s low and the 50-day moving average was encouraging for the Bull camp. A third test of that pocket may be enough to break it down. Like a wrecking ball against a building, each contact weakens the structure. If the market does fail there it could reaccelerate the selling towards 4-star support from 995 3/4-1001 1/4. On the Flip side, the market is treading near our pivot pocket from 1024 1/2-1027 1/2. IF the Bulls can chew through this pocket, we would see a run back at 1041 3/4-1042. We see this resistance as a more significant inflection point. We see a technical advantage for the Bears until the Bulls can prove themselves and achieve consecutive closes above this pocket.

Technical Levels of Importance

  • Resistance: 1041 3/4-1042, 1069 1/2-1069 3/4
  • Pivot: 1024 1/2 – 1027 1/2
  • Support: 1010-1011 1/2, 995 3/4-1001 1/4*


Notes

Weekly Export Sales Estimate
800,000-1,700,000 MT. Last week’s report came in at 1,443,500 MT


WASDE Estimates

  • Yield: 53.2, Unchanged from September
  • Harvested Area: 86.3, Unchanged from September
  • Production: 4.581, VS 4.586 in September

Ready to dig in? 

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

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