Livestock futures catch their breath in Wednesday’s trade. A healthy correction or more pressure to come?
Live Cattle (December)
December live cattle futures poked their head above resistance on yesterday’s open posting a high of 188.10 within the first two-minutes of trade. Ultimately the market failed to attract new buyers at this level which put minor pressure on prices through the session. At the close the December contract settled 65 cents lower to 187.225 which brought the RSI back to 67.73, below what is considered overbought. A continued failure against resistance from 187.675-188.00 could spark additional near-term pressure with key support coming in near 184.225-184.55. A break and close below that pocket and it could snowball. Seasonally this is a friendly time of year for live cattle but concerns around the election and hotter than expected inflation data this morning may keep the upside limited in the short run.
Resistance: 187.675-188.00***
Pivot: 184.225-184.55
Support: 181.325-182.07, 179.10-179.97
Notes
Weekly Export Sales
Net sales of beef were reported at 13,700 MT for 2024 were down 39 percent from the previous week and 8 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for China (4,200 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Japan (3,500 MT, including decreases of 600 MT), South Korea (1,500 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), Taiwan (1,200 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), and Mexico (1,100 MT, including decreases of 100 MT).
Daily Cattle and Beef Summary
Cutout values were firm yesterday with choice cuts 1.34 higher to 308.18 and select cuts up .02 to 288.63. The 5-area average price for live steers was reported at 187.00, steady with recent reports. Wednesday’s slaughter was reported at 125k head, in line with last week and last year.
Lean Hogs (December)
December lean hogs broke lower yesterday but were able to defend the low end of our pivot pocket into the close. That pocket from 75.25-76.00 will be watched closely today. A failure to hold ground here could spark additional long liquidation with the next support pocket coming in from 73.85-74.07. On the flipside, resistance remains intact from 77.22-77.72.
Resistance: 77.22-77.72, 78.70-78.97*
Pivot: 75.25-76.00
Support: 73.85-74.07, 72.00-72.85,
Notes
Weekly Export Sales: Net sales of pork were reported at 50,600 MT for 2024 were up 17 percent from the previous week and 56 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Mexico (27,200 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), Japan (7,200 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), South Korea (3,900 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Colombia (3,600 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), and the Dominican Republic (1,800 MT), were offset by reductions for Hong Kong (200 MT).
Stay ahead of the herd!
Subscribe to our daily Livestock Roundup for exclusive insights into Feeder Cattle, Live Cattle, and Lean Hogs. Get access to our proprietary trading levels and actionable market biases delivered straight to your inbox—every day.
Sign Up for Free Futures Market Research – Blue Line Futures