Bill Baruch is back at the NYSE for the CNBC Halftime Report to kick off the week. Tune in!
E-mini S&P (December) / E-mini NQ (December)
S&P, last week’s close: Settled at 5859.75, up 30.75 on Friday and 59.75 on the week
NQ, last week’s close: Settled at 20,450.00, up 20.25 on Friday and 20,450.00 on the week
E-mini S&P futures secured a bullish breakout Friday. The December contract has been consolidating at and above its July high but had not been settled decisively out above this on a weekly basis until Friday. Furthermore, the continuous chart, which displays the September contract at those July highs and aligns more closely with the SPX and SPY, was consolidating perfectly just above. However, given a treacherous economic calendar and geopolitical headwinds, many, including us, were waiting for the bullish breakout above this consolidation. For all intents and purposes Friday’s weekly close put to bed all doubters. With that said, charting is an art not a science, and can be viewed through multiple lenses. On one hand, a technician can draw a bullish rising wedge, and on the other, a different technician can see a bearish ascending wedge (highlighted above). And that is what makes a market.
Although today is Columbus Day, a bank holiday in the U.S., markets are open. The economic calendar was flooded with data from China ahead of today’s opening bell. Inflation (CPI and PPI) came in lower-than-expected Saturday, followed by a wide miss on Trade Balance Data (Imports/Exports) this morning. However, New Loans and M2 Money Supply surged for September, having some influence from the recent stimulus announcements.
From the U.S., there will be Fed speak, and a focus on NY Fed 1-year Inflation Expectations after the Michigan Consumer read came in higher on Friday.
Upon Friday’s opening bell, price action in E-mini S&P futures surged through our Pivot and point of balance, a critical recurring level, at 5821.50-5827.25 and set new record highs out above major three-star resistance at 5843.25-5848.75. While the E-mini S&P has extended gains and now using previous highs as support, the E-mini NQ is still contained by the September 26th highs and major three-star resistance at 20,503-20,517. A constructive path will be defined by our levels detailed below, and such should continue stoking higher prices. The E-mini S&P is closing in on our next major three-star resistance level at..
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