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Soybeans Continue to Drift Lower

Grain Express

/ by BlueLineFutures | Leave a comment

Soybeans have been the weak link since last week’s USDA report, spilling into weakness for corn and wheat. Are we headed back to the August lows?

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Soybeans


Wednesday’s Recap
Nov Soybean futures settled at a one month low of 980’0 Wednesday, dropping by 11’0 or 1.11%. Total volume came in at a contract high of 522,846, with the Nov maturity seeing a heavy 247,535 change hands. Overall open interest closed the day at a contract high of 963,740, gaining 15,512, or 1.64%. Nov open interest fell 11,903 (3.73%), to 307,027.

Technicals
Soybeans looked like they were going to stage a rebound yesterday morning, poking their head back above the psychologically $10 level before reversing to finish about 20 cents off the high and on the lows of the session. That bearish reversal has led to weakness in the overnight and early morning trade as prices flirt with first support from 972 3/4-975. Below this pocket and a retest of the August lows from 955-957 1/4 seems like the likely scenario. The RSI is at 31 this morning, the lowest levels since August.

Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 1010-1011 1/2, 1024 1/2 – 1027 1/2
Pivot: 995 3/4-1001 1/4
Support: 972 3/4-975, 955-957 1/4*


Popular Options

The Dec 990 put saw the most action with 10,422 contracts changing hands. Option open interest is greatest for the Nov 1040 calls at 20,369, and the Nov 1040 puts at 19,219.

Volatility Update
Soybean implied volatility ended sharply up as SVL increased 1.1 to finish at 20.39, a one week high. The 30-day historical volatility closed the session up by 0.21% to 18.03%. The SVL Skew finished slightly up, adding 0.012 to close at 0.59.

Fundamental Notes

  • Wednesday Morning Flash Sale
    • 175,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2024/2025 marketing year.
  • Weekly Export sales pushed back to Friday morning due to Monday’s holiday.

Corn

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Wheat

Wednesday’s Recap
Dec Wheat futures settled at 585’0 Wednesday, adding 5’4, in higher trade across the board. Across all maturities, 103,876 contracts were traded, with 57,508 done in the Dec maturity. Total open interest lost 2,875 (0.72%) to 395,669. Dec fell 3,335, or 1.67%, finishing at 196,140.

Technicals
December Chicago wheat futures were able to stabilize some in yesterday’s trade, but the conviction levels were low and not enough to move the needle at the end of the day. In the overnight and early morning trade we see more of the same as the market sloshes around near our pivot pocket from 582 3/4-584 1/4. If the Bulls fail to take gain ground above the highs from the last three sessions, we could see more pressure come into the market. 573 3/4 is first support which held yesterday, if that give way we would expect to see a further decline with the next downside objective coming in from 560 1/2-565 3/4.

Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 596-600, 615-617 1/2, 629 1/2-634
Pivot: 582 3/4-584 1/4
Support: 573 3/4**, 560 1/2-565 3/4


Popular Options

Option trading centered around the March 700 calls with 2,442 done and the Dec 550 puts with volume of 991. Option open interest is largest for the Dec 600 calls at 7,566, and the Dec 550 puts at 7,357.

Volatility Update
As measured by WVL, implied volatility closed the day higher, up by 0.71 to finish at 29.76. The 30-day historical volatility closed the session off by 0.0537% to a one week low of 24.49%. The WVL Skew finished moderately higher, adding 0.52 to settle at 5.66.

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

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