Cattle futures seem to be consolidating and settling into a range which may offer a lot of shorter-term opportunities for traders on both sides of the market.
Live Cattle (December)
Live cattle posted lower highs and lower lows in yesterday’s trade, closing at the lowest level since the 1st of the month. At the close, December futures were narrowly able to defend support from 186.075-186.40. A failure to stabilize above this pocket could keep the pressure on with the next downside objective for Bears coming in from 184.225-184.55. We are in the camp that consolidation from these levels seems like the likely scenario. With that thesis in mind, there may be some great shorter-term opportunities to trade both sides of the market. As mentioned in yesterday’s interview with RFD-TV, we feel a significant break lower would have to be on the back of an outside market factor. Volatility is relatively low so if you were looking to protect against unforeseen headlines, options may be a tool to consider using.
Resistance: 189.47-190.075, 191.47-191.62
Pivot: 187.675-188.00
Support: 186.075-186.40, 184.225-184.55
Weekly Export Sales
Beef: Net sales of 14,100 MT for 2024 were up 3 percent from the previous week, but down 9 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for Japan (4,600 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), South Korea (2,600 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), China (2,300 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Mexico (1,100 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), and Taiwan (700 MT, including decreases of 100 MT). Net sales of 900 MT for 2025 were reported for Japan (600 MT), Hong Kong (100 MT), the Philippines (100 MT), and Guatemala (100 MT). Exports of 15,300 MT were down 5 percent from the previous week and 2 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Japan (3,800 MT), South Korea (3,800 MT), China (1,900 MT), Mexico (1,400 MT), and Taiwan (1,000 MT).
Daily Cattle and Beef Summary
Cutout values were firm yesterday with choice cuts .13 higher to 319.26 and select 1.15 higher to 293.52. The 5-area average price for live steers was reported at 185.83. (on light volume). We heard rumors of 188 being passed on in TX yesterday, after the market closed it sounds like that’s where the trade took place. Thursday’s slaughter was reported at 118k head, 3k more than last week but about 7k less than last year. Week to date slaughter is at 488k, that’s 14k more than last week but 13k less than the same period last year.
Feeder Cattle (November)
November feeder cattle traded on both sides of unchanged yesterday as the market looks for direction here in the near term. We are a little more nervous about downside risk in feeders than that of live cattle. A break and close below 244.92 could trigger technical selling to 242.75-243.77. Below that and things could accelerate.
Resistance: 249.85-250.80, 253.075-253.90
Pivot: 246.82-247.60
Support: 244.92*, 242.75-243.77, 239.62-240.15
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