After an impressive start to the week, corn and soybeans have taken a moment to catch their breath. What futures remain the weak link in the early morning trade
Corn
Monday’s Recap
Monday’s Corn market was mostly higher with the Dec contract gaining 4’6 (1.17%), to 409’4, a one week high. Overall the session saw 424,092 contracts traded, with Dec volume coming in at 241,760. Across all maturities, open interest ended at a one month high of 1,618,366, adding 20,956 (1.31%). Dec open interest increased by 620, or 0.0827%, to 750,321.
Technicals
Corn futures finished last week’s trade with a sour note, but that was corrected in Monday’s trade with prices recovering and taking out the Thursday/Friday high. Our first upside target from these levels comes in from 413-416. If you’ve been long since defending support last week, this may be a spot to consider reducing exposure. With November options expiring this week it may be tough to stage a more meaningful rally.
Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 413-416, 425-426 1/2
Pivot:406 1/2-408 1/2
Support: 397-401 1/4****
Fundamental Notes
- Monday Morning Flash Sales
- 169,926 metric tons (6,689,689 bushels) of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2024/2025 marketing year
- 130,000 metric tons (5,117,872 bushels) of corn for delivery to South Korea during the 2024/2025 marketing year
- 198,192 metric tons (7,802,472 bushels) of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2024/2025 marketing year
- Weekly Export Inspections
- 999,811 metric tons. Within the range of expectations and nearly double last week’s report.
- Crop Progress
- 65% of the US corn crop is harvested. 2% ahead of expectations and ahead of last year’s and the average pace.
Popular Options
Option trading centered around the Dec 430 calls with 7,230 traded and the Nov 400 puts with volume of 7,264. Options with the largest open interest are the Dec 430 call with 32,722, and the Dec 400 put with 35,857.
Volatility Update
Corn implied volatility settled moderately higher as CVL gained 0.23 to finish the day at 20.27, a one week high. Higher by 0.19% to a one week high, historical volatility (as measured by the 30-day) finished at 17.90%. The CVL Skew closed sharply up, adding 0.35 to end at a one week high of 1.12.
Seasonal Tendency Update
Below is a chart of the December 2024 corn contract (black line) compared to price averages over the last 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 years.
Grain futures had a rough end to last week’s trade, but a flurry of flash sales for corn and beans have helped markets find their footing to start the week.
Soybeans
Monday’s Recap
Soybean futures were higher Monday with the Jan contract finishing the session at 989’6, up by 7’0, in narrow trade. Total volume was a heavy 414,522, with the Jan maturity seeing 133,301 change hands. Across all maturities, open interest fell 10,220 (1.07%) to 944,338. Jan increased 7,982, or 2.78%, finishing at 295,256.
Technicals
November soybeans were able to find their footing to start the week, an impressive showing considering the beatdown and close near the lows on Friday. The market has traded both sides of unchanged in the overnight and early morning trade. Though it still seems like a stretch, 995 3/4-1001 1/4 is not out of the question into Friday’s options expiration. A break back below our pivot pocket from 972 3/4-975 would shelf that idea.
Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 995 3/4-1001 1/4, 1010-1011 1/2
Pivot: 972 3/4-975
Support: 955-957 1/4****
Fundamental Notes
- Monday Morning Flash Sales
- 116,000 metric tons (4,262,269 bushels) of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2024/2025 marketing year
- 264,000 metric tons of soybeans (9700336 bushels) received in the reporting period for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2024/2025 marketing year.
Weekly Export Inspections
2,433,530 metric tons. Within the range of expectations and about 500k MT more than last week.
Crop Progress
81% of the US crop is harvested, in line with expectations and well ahead of the average pace, 67%.
Popular Options
The Nov 980 put saw the most traded with 3,410 contracts done. Calls with the greatest open interest are the Nov 1040 strike (19,046), and for the puts are the Nov 1040 strike (19,234).
Volatility Update
Implied Volatility closed moderately lower with SVL down by 0.25, to end the day at 21.90. Historical volatility (30-day) ended at 16.22%, down 0.90%, to a one month low. The SVL Skew finished the day up, higher by 0.1 to end at 0.66.
Seasonal Tendency Update
Below is a chart of the 2025 January soybean contract (black line) compared to price averages over the last 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 years.
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