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Livestock markets post strong gains in Tuesday’s trade, can the rally continue?

Livestock Round Up

/ by BlueLineFutures | Leave a comment

Live cattle and lean hogs were able to stage impressive rallies in Tuesday’s trade. Are new highs in the cards or has the market ran into resistance?

Live Cattle (December)

December live cattle were able to run back to the top end of the recent range in yesterday’s trade. We hate to sound like a broken record, but our bias and technical levels haven’t changed much. We wouldn’t be surprised to see the market continue to settle into more of a range with the top end coming in near 189 and the low end coming in near 184 and change. A breakout above or below could accelerate and extend the move in the corresponding direction.

Resistance: 189.47-190.075, 191.47-191.62
Pivot: 187.675-188.00
Support: 186.075-186.40, 184.225-184.55
Daily Cattle and Beef Summary

Cutout values were mixed Tuesday afternoon with choice cuts 1.10 higher to 323.96 and select 1.41 lower to 294.80. The 5-area average price for live steers was reported at 187.00 which we’d call steady. Tuesday’s slaughter was reported at 123k head, 2k less than the same day last week and 4k less than the same day last year.

Seasonal Tendency Update
Below is a chart of the February 2025 live cattle contract (black line) compared to price averages over the last 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 years.

*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Volatility Update
Live cattle volatility remains relatively low which may present opportunities for those looking to hedge/manage downside risk.

Commitment of Traders Update
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds were net buyers of over 10k contracts through October 15th, expanding their net long to 88,301. That is the largest net long position since October 3, 2023.

Feeder Cattle (November)


Feeder cattle futures staged an impressive rally yesterday, taking pries back near our resistance pocket from 249.85-250.80. This will be an important pocket to keep an eye on through this week’s trade. We are in the camp that this resistance pocket can hold but recognize a breakout and close above could extend the rally towards 253.075-253.90.

Resistance: 249.85-250.80, 253.075-253.90
Pivot: 246.82-247.60
Support: 244.92*, 242.75-243.77, 239.62-240.15


Seasonal Tendency Update
Below is a chart of the January 2025 feeder cattle contract (black line) compared to price averages over the last 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 years.

*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Commitment of Traders Update
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds were net buyers of about 2.2k contracts, the fifth straight week of net buying. The net long position for Funds stands at 7,657, the largest net long since April.

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

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Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points that can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

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This message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.

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