Grain markets had a tough start to the week but are finding some strength in the overnight and early morning trade.
Oliver Sloup was on RFD-TV Monday morning to share his thoughts on the early price action in the grain and livestock markets.
Corn
Monday’s Recap
Dec Corn futures settled at a one week low of 410’6 Monday, dropping by 4’4 (1.08%). Combined volume was a heavy 507,252, with the Dec contract seeing 251,359 done. Across all maturities, open interest closed the session at a contract high of 1,682,807, gaining 14,351, or 0.86%. Dec open interest dropped 5,678 (0.78%), to 723,857.
Technicals
Corn futures were lower to start the week, feeding off of a weak technical close on Friday coupled with headwinds from the oil market which was sharply lower yesterday. The market has found its footing in the early morning trade as prices attempt to work their way back into our pivot pocket from 413-416. A failure to close back above this pocket keeps the very short-term advantage in the Bear’s camp. Above, and it flips the script (hence the word “pivot”).
Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 425-426 1/2***
Pivot:413-416
Support: 406 1/2-408 1/2, 397-401 1/4*
Popular Options
The Nov ZC1 415 put saw the most action with 5,590 contracts done. Calls with the most open interest are the Dec 430 strike (32,882), and for the puts are the Dec 400 strike (37,893).
Volatility Update
As measured by CVL, implied volatility ended the day moderately up, adding 0.18 to settle at 19.05. Adding 0.18%, historical volatility (as measured by the 30-day) ended the session at 18.56%. The CVL Skew was sharply down, dropping 0.81 to close at 0.73, a one week low.
Fundamental Notes
Monday Morning Flash Sales
- 124,000 metric tons (4,881,663 bushels) of corn for delivery to Japan during the 2024/2025 marketing year.
- 120,000 metric tons (4,724,190 bushels) of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2024/2025 marketing year.
Weekly Export Inspections
- 823,664 metric tons. Within the range of expectations and about 175k MT less than last week.
Crop Progress - 81% of the US corn crop is harvested, well ahead of the average pace which is 64%.
Brazil’s summer corn planting is reported to be 62.8% complete, that’s mostly in line with a typical pace.
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