brown grass

Another Mixed Morning in Grain Markets

Grain Express

/ by BlueLineFutures | Leave a comment

Grain markets have mixed through this week’s trade.  In the overnight and early morning trade it has been more of the same.

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Wheat


Wednesday’s Recap
Wheat futures were higher Tuesday with the Dec contract finishing the session at 570’4, up 11’6, or 2.10%. Across all maturities, volume was 125,918, with Dec seeing 67,415 done. Overall open interest dropped 585 (0.14%) to end the session with 415,985 outstanding. The Dec maturity decreased 2.53%, or 585, to finish at 198,434.

Technicals
Wheat futures have been able to defend our “MUST HOLD” support pocket this week, that remains intact from 557 1/2-560 1/2. On the resistance side, the Bulls want to chew through and close above our pivot pocket from 582 3/4-585 1/2 to spur some excitement about a more meaningful rally.

Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 596-600, 615-617 1/2, 629 1/2-634
Pivot: 582 3/4-585 1/2
Support: 557 1/2-560 1/2, 544 1/4***


Fundamental Notes
Weekly Export Sales Estimates

  • Range: 350,000 – 650,000 MT. Avg Est: 488,000. Last Week: 533,000 MT.


Russian Exports

SovEcon sees wheat exports at 45.9m tons, down from 47.6m tons citing “a decrease in the crop forecast and increased intervention by the Ministry of Agriculture in market operations”.

Popular Options

Option volumes were highest for the Dec 600 call (858) and the Dec 570 put (2,151). Options with the greatest open interest are the Dec 600 call with 8,238, and the Dec 550 put with 7,693.

Volatility Update
Implied Volatility finished the session slightly up with WVL higher by 0.14, to end the day at 29.82. The 30-day historical volatility finished the day off by 0.53% to 24.46%. The WVL Skew finished the day lower, dropping by 0.37 to end at 5.72.

Seasonal Tendencies Update
Below is a look at historical price averages for March wheat futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

Performance Disclaimer

Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points that can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

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Seasonal Disclaimer

This message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.

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