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E-mini S&P (December) / E-mini NQ (December)
S&P, last week’s close: Settled at 5758.25, up 19.75 on Friday and down 87.75 on the week
NQ, last week’s close: Settled at 20,153.25, up 131.50 on Friday and down 345.50 on the week
E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures finished the week in the green but I would not go as far as to say it was a strong close. Nonfarm Payrolls were certainly headline weak, showing only 12,000 jobs created in October versus 106,000 expected, while September was revised from 254,000 to 223,000. One could argue the Boeing strike and hurricanes had a negative impact, however, estimates accounted for this and there was some skew in the Private survey data showing a surprise decline of 28,000 jobs lost versus expectations for 90,000 to be created, while September was revised lower by 31,000. Furthermore, this dataset is perceived to be economically worse than displayed when accounting for factors such as immigration.
Price action across indices was initially very favorable, discounting more certainty in Fed rate cuts, but E-mini S&P futures stumbled against major three-star resistance at 5799-5807.25, a level in which we noted price action must close above in order to begin neutralizing Thursday’s selling. The tape turned after ISM Manufacturing PMI anecdotally showed stagflation with another economically weak print on headline at 46.5 versus 47.6 (contraction below 50), while prices soared at 54.8 versus 49.9 expected. Atlanta Fed GDPNow later confirmed a drop in Q4 growth expectations at 2.3%, down from 2.7%.
Volatility is to be expected with tomorrow’s U.S. Presidential election front and center. All things considered, Friday was not awful, it was just not the type of firm tape the bulls would prefer after Thursday’s decisive pullback, leaving things vulnerable. At the onset of U.S. hours, price action has so far held out above major three-star support at…
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