Grain markets are trading in positive territory this morning, will it hold through the session?
Oliver Sloup was on RFD-TV yesterday morning, sharing his thoughts on the recent price action and Fund activity in the grain and livestock markets
Updated StoneX Yield Survey
StoneX just released their customer-based yield survey. They show the US corn yield at 183.7, down from 184.0 in October. Their soybean yield dropped to 52.6 bushels per acre, down from 53.5 last month.
Corn
Monday’s Recap
Monday’s Corn market was mostly higher with the Dec contract up 2’0 to 416’4, a one week high. Across all maturities, the session saw 417,279 contracts done, with Dec volume coming in at 219,138. Overall open interest decreased 7,319 (0.43%) to 1,681,711. Dec shed 15,785, or 2.30%, finishing at 671,332.
Technicals
Corn futures were able to grind higher yesterday which has led to some support in the overnight and early morning trade. All in all, not much has changed on the technical front over the last 24-hours. Significant support for the Bulls to defend to maintain a slight technical advantage comes in from 409-410. Below that and the tides turn.
Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 425-426 1/2***
Pivot:413-416
Support: 409-410, 397-401 1/4*
Popular Options
Option volumes were highest for the Dec 450 call (14,555) and the Dec 400 put (8,905). Option open interest is largest for the Dec 430 calls at 39,873, and the Dec 400 puts at 37,803.
Volatility Update
Implied Volatility ended the session sharply higher with CVL gaining 0.9, to close the day at a one week high of 19.69. Up by 0.0555%, historical volatility (as measured by the 30-day) ended the day at 15.93%. The CVL Skew finished the day slightly higher, up by 0.7 to settle at 0.67.
Fundamental Notes
Monday Morning Flash Sales
- 150,000 metric tons (5,905,237 bushels) of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2024/2025 marketing year.
- 120,000 metric tons (4,724,190 bushels) of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2024/2025 marketing year.
- Weekly Export Inspections
- 779,078 metric tons (30,670,937 bushels), below last week’s 840,435 MT, but within the range of expectations.
Crop Progress
- 91% of the US corn crop is planted, well ahead of the average pace at 75%.
- Corn planting in the Center-South of Brazil reached 59%, a 7% advance from the previous week but behind last year’s pace of 66%.
Seasonal Tendencies Update
Below is a look at historical price averages for March corn futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results). The chart seems to indicate that November can be a tough time for the market to stage a meaningful rally. Whether or not that plays true this year is TBD.
Commitment of Traders Update
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds were net buyers of nearly 54k contracts, trimming their net short position to 17.7k, the smallest net short position since August of 2023.
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