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Cattle Futures Test Significant Support. Will it Hold?

Livestock Round Up

/ by BlueLineFutures | Leave a comment

Cattle futures defend technical support, and lean hogs revisit the upper end of the recent range.

Grain markets received friendly news in the most recent WASDE report but have failed to find any follow through momentum. A sign of caution?

Live Cattle (December)

December live cattle futures started the week with a weaker tone, but were able to defend support nearly to a T. We outlined the lower end of support as 182.82, the low was 182.80. The Bulls will want to defend this pocket through today’s trade, a revisit of this could spur a breakdown with the next downside objective coming in from 180.00-180.50.

Resistance: 186.60-187.675***, 189.47-190.075****
Pivot: 184.55-185.20
Support:182.82-183.325***, 180.00-180.50***


Daily Cattle and Beef Summary

Cutout values firmed on Monday with choice cuts .28 higher to 308.21 and select cuts 2.65 higher to 281.84. The 5-area average price for live steers was reported at 186.53. Friday’s slaughter was reported at 112k head, 12k less than the same day last year and 8k less than last week.

Seasonal Tendency Update
Below is a look at historical price averages for February futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results). The chart appears to show that the first half of November is a tough time for the market to stage a meaningful rally, but the back half can be more favorable. Whether or not that rings true this year is TBD.

Commitment of Traders Update
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds were net buyers of about 940 futures and options contracts, all but 6 contracts being short covering. This extended they weekly buying streak to 7 weeks (important to note this data is through November 5th and does not include the end of the week). Funds are now net long 101,453 contracts. That registers as the largest net long position since September of 2023.

Lean Hogs (February)


February lean hog futures were able to gravitate back higher yesterday, coming within a stone’s throw of new contract highs. With Funds positioned the way they are, our caution flags remain hoisted. That doesn’t mean the market can’t keep going higher, we just see it as there’s greater risk of a sharper move to the downside than upside.

Resistance: 86.22586.50**
Pivot: 83.97-84.30
Support: 82.05-82.27, 80.90-81.20*


Commitment of Traders
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds were net buyers of about 14k contracts. This puts Funds net long 121,069 contracts, a new record long.

Seasonal Tendency Update
Below is a look at historical price averages for February futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

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Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points that can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

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This message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.

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