It’s a bit of a mixed bag in the early morning trade with corn and wheat lower and beans hanging on to small gains. Here’s what’s on tap for today’s trade.
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Corn
Friday’s Recap
Friday’s Corn market was mostly lower with the March contract losing 1’0 to 435’2, a one week low. Across all maturities, 444,194 contracts were traded, with 175,792 done in the March maturity. Total open interest lost 10,110 (0.61%) to 1,644,937. March gained 25,905, or 3.85%, finishing at 698,319.
Technicals
With December options off the board and futures inching closer to First Notice Day, the focus has shifted to the March contract, which seems to be stuck in a bit of a “no man’s land” First meaningful resistance comes in from 439-442 1/4. If the Bulls can chew through that pocket we could see a retest of the highs from the start of the month, 447 3/4. On the support side of things, the Bulls MUST defend 427 1/2-429, a breakdown from that level could snowball the selling. And where are we this morning? basically, in the middle of that risk range, which is why we referred to it as no man’s land. From a trader’s perspective, you’d want to see the market work closer to support to buy and closer to resistance to sell.
Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 439-442 1/4***, 447 3/4****
Support:427 1/2-429***, 423 1/4*, 414-416 3/4****
Popular Options
Option trading centered around the Jan 460 calls with 3,495 done and the March 420 puts with volume of 4,467. Calls with the largest open interest are the July 450 strike (42,577), and for the puts are the March 420 strike (29,293).
Volatility Update
Implied Volatility closed the session sharply lower with CVL off 1.2, to end the day at 16.67. The 30-day historical volatility ended the session dropping 0.93% to a one week low of 18.37%. The CVL Skew was moderately lower with the 30-day down by 0.34, finishing the session at 1.34.
Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 11.25.24)
Below is a look at historical price averages for March corn futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results). Historically, December has been a favorable month for prices. Whether or not that stays on trend this year or not is still to be seen.
Commitment of Traders Update
(Updated on 11.25.24)
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were little changed in their positioning compared to the prior week. Thier net long position stands at 107,099 futures contracts.
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