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Volatility Set to Rise in Livestock Markets

Livestock Round Up

/ by BlueLineFutures | Leave a comment

Recent headlines from the USDA could ramp up the volatility in livestock markets. Here are a few things to keep an eye on for today’s trade.

Mexico Notifies United States of New World Screwworm Detection

USDA Report Link: Mexico Notifies United States of New World Screwworm Detection | Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service

Live Cattle (December)

December live cattle futures made another move higher Friday but was far from a technical breakout with resistance remaining intact from 186.60-187.675. If the market can chew through this pocket, we could see an extension towards the upper end of the risk range which dates back to the summer months, that comes in from 189.47-190.075. A higher open is expected this morning on the USDA headline.

Resistance: 186.60-187.675***, 189.47-190.075****
Pivot: 184.55-185.20
Support: 182.50-182.82***, 180.00-180.50***


Cattle on Feed

On Feed: 100.0% VS avg 99.9%, range 99.4-100.2%
Placements: 105.0% VS avg 103.8%, range 100.0-107.0%
Marketings: 105.0% VS avg 105.2%, 104.7-106.0%

Daily Cattle and Beef Summary

Cutout values were mixed on Friday afternoon with choice cuts .62 higher to 307.41 and select cuts 85 cents lower to 272.07. Friday’s slaughter was reported at 117k head, 3k less than last week. The 5-area average price for live steers was reported at 185.61 which was firm with what we saw through the first half of the week.

Seasonal Tendency Update
(updated 11.25.24)

Below is a look at historical price averages for February futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).

Commitment of Traders Update

(updated 11.25.24)

Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds were net buyers of about 4.8k futures and options contracts.  This extended they weekly buying streak to 9 weeks. Funds are now net long 111,853 contracts.  That registers as the largest net long position since July of 2023.  

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

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Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points that can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

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Seasonal Disclaimer

This message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.

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