Grain markets are mixed in the early morning trade as the holiday trade starts to kick in.
Grain markets were lower in the overnight trade after President Elect Donald Trump brought up potential tariffs on Mexico and Canada. The markets digested that news and finished the day mixed.
Corn
Tuesday’s Recap
For the fourth consecutive session, Corn futures finished lower, with the March contract settling Tuesday at 428’0, off by 5’0 or 1.15%. Across all maturities, a heavy 672,327 contracts were traded, with 323,713 done in the March maturity. Combined open interest shed 35,911 (2.27%) to 1,545,948. March rose 34,034, or 4.74%, finishing at 752,023.
Technicals
December corn futures continued to retreat yesterday, settling right in our support pocket from 427 1/2-429. A failure to hold ground here into next week’s trade could open the door for additional technical pressure. Trade volume will likely thin out today, markets are closed tomorrow, and Friday is an abbreviated session. Don’t stare at the screens too hard, enjoy your family time.
Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 439-442 1/4***, 447 3/4****
Support:427 1/2-429***, 423 1/4*, 414-416 3/4****
Popular Options
The March 400 put saw the most changing hands with 10,694 contracts done. Option open interest is largest for the March 450 calls at 43,306, and the March 420 puts at 32,347.
Volatility Update
Corn implied volatility closed the session down as CVL dropped 0.27 to settle at 15.51, a twelve year low. Up by 0.39%, historical volatility (as measured by the 30-day) finished at 17.93%. The CVL Skew was sharply lower with the 30-day down by 0.57, ending at a one week low of 0.47.
Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 11.25.24)
Below is a look at historical price averages for March corn futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results). Historically, December has been a favorable month for prices. Whether or not that stays on trend this year or not is still to be seen.
Commitment of Traders Update
(Updated on 11.25.24)
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were little changed in their positioning compared to the prior week. Thier net long position stands at 107,099 futures contracts.
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