Bill Baruch joined the Schwab Network Monday morning to discuss what keeps the S&P setting record highs into yearend and where headwinds can come from.
E-mini S&P (December) / E-mini NQ (December)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 6051.50, up 36.50 on Friday and 64.50 on the week
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 20,993.50, up 180.50 on Friday and 143.75 on the week
E-mini S&P and E-mini Dow futures finished November at fresh record highs. The E-mini NQ sits about 1% below its November 11th mark and the E-mini Russell 2000 is probing its first record since 2021 but has yet to decisively clear the hurdle.
This post-holiday week brings a stew of geopolitical matters and economic data. A terrorist coup in Syria is an ever-present reminder of deteriorating stability in the Middle East. The Israel-Lebanon ceasefire has been questioned. Russia and Ukraine seem to be at the highest risk in maybe two years. The current White House enacted further regulations to restrict chip sales to China. The incoming White House continues to lean in on the tariff narrative with President-elect Trump tweeting that he would impose 100% tariffs on BRICS nations if they moved away from the U.S. Dollar. There is unrest in Georgia, and the list goes on.
Today’s calendar brings the final SPGI Manufacturing PMI for November at 8:45 am CT and the more closely watched ISM Manufacturing report at 9:00 am CT. Traders also want to keep an ear to the ground for holiday spending data and when Fed Governor Waller speaks at 2:15 pm CT.
E-mini S&P futures broke out Friday and are attempting to hold this tailwind while trading above first key support at 6036-6038.25. However, the E-mini NQ continues to struggle against rare major four-star resistance aligning with the gap close from November 14th. On Wednesday we noted the Mag 7 has begun to show up and this aligns with our thesis through yearend, in which the largest names will outperform. Despite the struggle against resistance, price action remains constructive, holding a trend line from the August low that creates an ascending triangle, a very bullish pattern. We see today’s tape favorable with continued trading above our Pivot and point of balance at….
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