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Grain markets are lower in the early morning trade. Can seasonal tendencies offer strength in the month of December?
Soybeans
Friday’s Recap
Soybean futures were mostly lower Friday with the Jan contract finishing the session at a one week high of 989’4, up 0’6. Across all maturities, volume was a light 162,621, with Jan seeing 77,392 done. Combined open interest added 1,194, or 0.13%, to end the session with 908,690 outstanding. The Jan maturity fell 0.0939% (1,194) to finish at 335,146.
Technicals
January soybean futures had a choppy end to last week’s trade. So far to start this week, pries have been mostly lower but in a modest manner. Support remains intact from 977 1/4-980 3/4. Below that is the August low at 973 1/2. We’ve outlined these lower bounds as a value zone, but the Bulls need to see them defended on a closing basis. On the resistance side of things, 995 3/4-1002 1/2 is the hurdle to get out above. The Bulls made an attempt on Friday but fell short with a failure at 998.
Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 995 3/4-1002 1/2***, 1011 1/2-1013 3/4**, 1018-1024 3/4****
Pivot: 986 1/4-987 1/4
Support: 977 1/4-980 3/4*** 973 1/2**
Popular Options
The March 920 put saw the most action with 4,537 contracts traded. Calls with the largest open interest are the March 1100 strike (17,285), and for the puts are the March 980 strike (23,779).
Volatility Update
As measured by SVL, implied volatility closed moderately up, adding 0.28 to end at 17.00. The 30-day historical volatility finished the day down 0.12% to a one week low of 14.79%. The SVL Skew closed the session sharply up, higher by 0.12 to end at 0.32.
Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 12.2.24)
Below is a look at historical price averages for January soybean futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results). As with corn, December has been a historically friendlier month for soybeans. Keep in mind though that we’ve seen a lot of counter seasonal trends for beans throughout the year.
Commitment of Traders Update
(Updated on 11.25.24; updates delayed due to Thanksgiving)
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds were net sellers, increasing their net short position to 48,522 contracts.
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