Grain markets were relatively mute to start the new month but are finding their footing in the early morning trade. Can the momentum continue through the session?
The First Trading Day of December is Officially in the Books!
Grain markets struggled to find buyers in Monday’s trade and long liquidation was seen in the cattle complex. Here’s how the first trading day of the month shook out.
Corn
Monday’s Recap
Monday’s Corn market was mixed with the March contract down 0’4 to 432’4. Across all maturities, the session saw 290,844 contracts traded, with March volume coming in at 173,212. Combined open interest increased 3,657 (0.24%) to end the session with 1,522,525 outstanding. The March maturity dropped 0.31%, or 3,657, to finish at 785,756.
Technicals
March corn futures were able to fight off the pressure from Sunday night, finishing yesterday’s trade near unchanged. Trendline support was defended which is a silver lining for the Bulls. With that said, the overhead resistance remains intact from 441 3/4-442 1/4. If you zoom out on the chart, you can see this relatively narrow range we’ve been in is mostly consolidation within the October range. A breakout above or below resistance/support could spark the next directional move. Bulls may have a slight advantage with the potential of a seasonal tailwind.
Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 441 3/4-442 1/4***, 447 3/4****
Support:425 1/2-427 1/2, 423 1/4***, 414-416 3/4****
Popular Options
Option volumes were highest for the Jan 430 call (3,345) and the Jan 430 put (2,556). Greatest volumes in March option trading were seen in the 455 calls (2,963) and the 410 puts (1,243). Calls with the greatest open interest are the March 450 strike (43,532), and for the puts are the March 420 strike (32,371).
Volatility Update
Implied Volatility finished down with CVL off 0.27, to end at a twelve year low of 15.31. Historical volatility (30-day) closed the session at 17.82%, down by 0.20%, to a one week low. The CVL Skew finished the day sharply lower, dropping 0.44 to settle at 0.54.
Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 12.2.24)
Below is a look at historical price averages for March corn futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results). Historically, December has been a favorable month for prices. Whether or not that stays on trend this year or not is still to be seen.
Commitment of Traders Update
(Updated on 12.3.24)
Monday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net sellers of nearly 23k futures contracts, shrinking their net long position to 83,902.
Fundamental Notes
- Weekly Export Inspection: 935,859 MT. Expectations ranged from 650,000-1,200,000 MT. Last week’s report came in at 903,049 MT.
- Recent rains across Argentina’s agricultural heartland have brought much-needed moisture to the soil as the planting of corn and soybeans are underway, Rosario’s grains exchange reported on Monday. It sees the corn harvest yielding 50 million-51 million tons. -Reuters
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