Long liquidation pressures livestock prices in Wednesday’s trade. A healthy correction or more selling to come?
Ag Markets Come Under Pressure While Stocks Make New Highs
Grain markets were lower on Wednesday as the lack of new news has kept buyers at bay. Livestock markets came under pressure on the back of long liquidation from funds. In the outside markets, it was new all-time highs for the S&P and NASDAQ.
Live Cattle (February)
February live cattle futures struggled against resistance yet again in yesterday’s trade, which ended up putting pressure on prices, erasing most of Tuesday’s gains. With a mostly rangebound trade through the first half of the week, support and resistance levels remain intact.
- Resistance: 189.00-189.375**, 190.05-190.325****
- Pivot: 187.00-187.57
- Support: 184.40-184.65***, 182.40-182.70***
Daily Cattle and Beef Summary
Cutout values were mixed in Wednesday afternoon’s report. Choice cuts were 2.50 lower to 308.33 and select cuts 2.37 higher to 277.70. Tuesday’s slaughter was reported at 125k head, 1k more than last week and 1k less than last year. The 5-area average price for live steers was reported at 190.00, firm with what we saw through the first half of the last week.
Weekly Export Sales Summary
Net sales of 100 MT for 2024–a marketing-year low–were down 97 percent from the previous week and 99 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Japan (1,700 MT, including deceases of 1,000 MT), Canada (700 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), China (600 MT, including decreases of 1,700 MT), Mexico (400 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), and Taiwan (200 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), were offset by reductions for South Korea (3,300 MT), Hong Kong (500 MT), and Saudi Arabia (100 MT). Net sales of 13,700 MT for 2025 were primarily for South Korea (7,000 MT), China (3,000 MT), Japan (1,700 MT), Hong Kong (1,200 MT), and Mexico (300 MT). Exports of 14,400 MT were down 1 percent from the previous week and 6 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to South Korea (3,900 MT), Japan (3,400 MT), China (2,100 MT), Mexico (1,500 MT), and Taiwan (1,100 MT).
Seasonal Tendency Update
(updated 12.2.24)
Below is a look at historical price averages for February futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).
Commitment of Traders Update
(Updated on 12.3.24)
Monday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds expanded their net long position to 118,350 contracts. As mentioned in Monday’s wrap up video, this is not a record, but we would put it in the over extended category.
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