Grains had an impressive move higher in Thursdays trade. The beginning of a bigger rally?
Grain Markets Pop and Cattle Futures Drop
Grain markets were higher across the board in Thursday’s trade while cattle futures saw continued long liquidation which pressured prices. Oliver Sloup joined RFD-TV yesterday afternoon to share his thoughts on the Ag markets.
Soybeans
Thursday’s Recap
Thursday’s Soybean market was higher with the Jan contract higher by 10’0, or 1.02%, to 993’6, a one week high. Overall volume was 240,613, with Jan seeing 109,222 done. Total open interest finished at a one month high of 935,034, up by 6,281, or 0.68%. Jan open interest fell by 2,609 (0.79%), to 326,504.
Technicals
Soybeans had a move back to the upside yesterday which looked good from a causal observer’s standpoint. With that said, are still extremely rangebound in a sideways trade. Like corn, our bias is tilted a little bit more to the Bullish side and for similar reasons. From the technical side of things, a close above our resistance pocket from 995 3/4-1002 1/2 is what is needed to turn the momentum higher. The next significant upside target above that pocket comes in from 1018-1024 3/4.
Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 995 3/4-1002 1/2***, 1011 1/2-1013 3/4**, 1018-1024 3/4****
Pivot: 986 1/4-987 1/4
Support: 977 1/4-980 3/4*** 973 1/2**
Fundamental Notes
- Weekly Export Sales: Net sales of 2,312,700 MT for 2024/2025 were down 7 percent from the previous week, but up 17 percent from the prior 4-week average. VS range of estimates from 1,100,000-2,500,000. Last Week’s report: 2,490,461
Popular Options
The May 1000 put saw the most traded with 11,134 contracts changing hands. Options with the most open interest are the March 1100 call with 17,177, and the March 980 put with 26,436.
Volatility Update
Soybean implied volatility ended the session slightly down as SVL shed 0.14 to finish at 15.83, a one month low. The 30-day historical volatility closed the day up 0.37% to a one week high of 14.92%. The SVL Skew closed the day sharply down, dropping 0.2 to end at a one week low of 0.01.
Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 12.2.24)
Below is a look at historical price averages for January soybean futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results). As with corn, December has been a historically friendlier month for soybeans. Keep in mind though that we’ve seen a lot of counter seasonal trends for beans throughout the year.
Commitment of Traders Update
(Updated on 12.3.24)
Monday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds were net sellers of roughly 10k futures contracts, increasing their net short position to 58,466 contracts.
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