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Grain markets were pretty dull in the first half of last week’s trade but found their footing into the weekend. Some of that strength has carried over into the early morning trade. Can corn, soybeans, and wheat clear the big technical resistance levels?
Wheat
Friday’s Recap
Wheat futures were lower Friday with the March contract finishing the session at 557’2, dropping 1’0, in narrow trade. Across all maturities, 90,290 contracts changed hands, with 55,782 traded in the March maturity. Combined open interest added 3,131 (0.74%), with March losing 308, or 0.12%, to 250,834.
Technicals
March wheat futures were actually constructive last week, making new contract lows on Wednesday but closing positive, which led to followthrough momentum on Thursday. The market has found it’s footing in the usnday night trade, trading out above last week’s high, albiet just slightly. If the Bulls can keep this momentum going we could see a retest of 574 1/2-577 1/2. Consecutive closes above this pocket could turn the tide and put the ball back in the Bulls court.
Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 560 1/2**574 1/2-577 1/2***
Pivot: 546 1/4-549
Support: 540-542***, 520 3/4***
Popular Options
Option volumes were greatest for the March 700 call (4,667) and the Jan 550 put (1,622). Calls with the largest open interest are the March 700 strike (12,386), and for the puts are the Jan 540 strike (4,382).
Volatility Update
As measured by WVL, implied volatility finished the session slightly down, dropping 0.16 to end at 26.19. Down by 0.86% to a one week low, historical volatility (as measured by the 30-day) finished the session at 22.79%. The WVL Skew was slightly higher with the 30-day adding 0.058, finishing the session at a one week high of 6.17.
Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 12.9.24)
Below is a look at historical price averages for March wheat futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).
Commitment of Traders Update
(Updated on 12.9.24)
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds grew their net short position by about 10.3k futures contracts, expanding their net short to -69,386, the largest net short position since the Summer.
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