WTI Crude Holds Key Levels Amid Geopolitical Tensions and Market Uncertainty

Energy Update

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WTI Crude Oil Futures (January)

Yesterday’s Settlement: 70.29, up +1.70 [+2.48%]

WTI Crude Oil futures rallied strongly yesterday off technical buying and geopolitical / sanction risk. Treasury secretary Janet Yellen said that lower oil prices might allow further sanctions against Russia.

Also, President Donald Trump’s pick for national security adviser, Mike Waltz, said in a Fox News interview “You’re going to see a huge shift on Iran”, he continued “We have to constrain their cash. We have to constrain their oil. We have to go back to maximum pressure, number one, which was working under the first Trump administration.” 

The current administration has placed very strict sanctions and restrictions on Russian and Iranian oil in a very public manner, but in reality, they have done little to enforce these sanctions for fear of driving inflation higher. If the Trump administration works to enforce Iranian oil sanctions it could take 1.5 – 2.0 mil bpd of crude oil off the export market. Iranian pressure is a catalyst traders should watch moving forward. 

Yesterday’s EIA report was fairly bearish for diesel and gasoline markets. The figures printed as follows [thousand bbls]:

  • Crude: -1,425 vs -1,100 estimate 
  • Gasoline: +5,086 vs +1,200 estimate
  • Distillates: +3,235 vs +1,000 estimate
  • Refinery Utilization: -0.90% vs -0.10% estimate

Today, WTI Crude Oil futures are lower by -0.43 [-0.58%] to 69.89 after holding fairly steady overnight. Some stronger selling has come through late this morning after U.S. PPI figures reported hotter-than-expected inflation figures at 7:30 am.

Yesterday’s rally failed to settle above the upper band of our key three-star resistance level of 70.42. While we remain bullish in our medium-term outlook, we’d advise against any aggressive new long positioning at these levels. Having said that, a settlement above 70.42 would be a fairly bullish setup, with price likely to test 71.69. For today, the intraday pivot and point of balance is set at 69.50, intraday resistance is at our longer-term, three-star resistance level of 70.42, initial support is at…

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

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