Grain markets were weaker to round out last week’s trade but have found their footing and are uniformly higher to start this week’s trade.
Corn
Friday’s Recap
March Corn futures settled at 442’0 Friday, down by 1’4, in lower trade across the board. Across all maturities, 333,511 contracts changed hands, with 170,867 traded in the March maturity. Combined open interest fell 7,964 (0.49%) to 1,610,909. March shed 7,566, or 0.94%, finishing at 794,034.
Technicals
March corn futures retreated in the back half of last week’s trade, retracing the breakout point from the WASDE report. The ability to defend that pocket has helped lead to some strength in the overnight and early morning trade with prices recouping most of the losses from Friday’s trade. A break and close below our pivot pocket would turn the technical advantage towards the Bear camp. Until then, the Bulls still have the upper hand.
Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 447 3/4-452 1/4****, 471 1/2****
Pivot: 434-437 1/2
Support:425 1/2-428***, 423 1/4*, 414-416 3/4****
Fundamental Notes
Exports have been strong for corn over the last few months, but last week’s report raised caution. Net sales of 946,900 MT for 2024/2025 were down 45 percent from the previous week and 32 percent from the prior 4-week average. Mexico has been the largest buyer recently but they were in the number two spot last week, behind Colombia.
Popular Options
The Jan 440 put saw the most traded with 3,689 contracts changing hands. High volumes in March option trading were seen in the 460 calls (2,801) and the 400 puts (688). Options with the most open interest are the July 450 call with 42,906, and the March 420 put with 22,956.
Volatility Update
Implied Volatility ended the session moderately down with CVL losing 0.47, to finish the day at a one week low of 15.18. The 30-day historical volatility ended down 0.0377% to 17.31%. The CVL Skew was slightly higher with the 30-day gaining 0.028, closing the session at 1.40.
Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 12.16.24)
Below is a look at historical price averages for March corn futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results). Historically, December has been a favorable month for prices. Whether or not that stays on trend this year or not is still to be seen.
Commitment of Traders Update
(Updated on 12.16.24)
Managed Money added +77,670 longs in Corn in the week ending Dec. 10 expanding their net long position to 165,890.
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