Grain Markets are Quiet in the Early Morning Trade

Grain Express

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It has been an uneventful night session for grain markets. Here are some key technical levels to keep an eye on for today’s trade.

Soybeans


Monday’s Recap
Monday’s Soybean market was lower with the March contract dropping 9’0 to 986’0, a one week low. Overall, 304,289 contracts were traded, with 110,510 done in March. Across all maturities, open interest fell 3,658, or 0.40%, with March adding 11,156 (3.14%) to 366,916.

Technicals
January soybeans tried to hold ground yesterday but gave up ground following a flurry of bearish headwinds from South American production estimates and a disappointing NOPA crush report. Despite the weakness, support was able to hold (so far), that remains intact from 977 1/4-980 3/4. Just below this pocket is the contract low from August, 973 1/2. Below that and the selling could snowball.

Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 1002 1/2-1006 1/2***, 1011 1/2-1013 3/4**, 1018-1024 3/4****
Pivot: 986 1/4-987 1/4
Support: 977 1/4-980 3/4*** 973 1/2**


Fundamental Notes
Weekly Export Inspections: 1,676,444 MT. Within the range of estimates and just below last week’s 1,736,783.
NOPA Crush: The U.S. soybean crush declined in November from an all-time high a month earlier and fell short of most trade estimates, according to National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) data released on Monday. NOPA members, which account for about 95% of U.S.-processed soybeans, crushed 193.185 million bushels of the oilseed last month, below the average estimate of 196.713 million bushels.


Popular Options

Option trading centered around the March 1060 calls with 4,520 changing hands and the Jan 970 puts with volume of 4,879. Option open interest is largest for the March 1100 calls at 18,021, and the March 980 puts at 29,644.

Volatility Update
Soybean implied volatility closed the session moderately higher as SVL increased 0.24 to settle at 16.03, a one week high. The 30-day historical volatility closed the day up by 0.0554% to 14.00%. The SVL Skew ended slightly up, gaining 0.019 to finish at -0.39.

Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 12.16.24)

Below is a look at historical price averages for January soybean futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results). As with corn, December has been a historically friendlier month for soybeans. Keep in mind though that we’ve seen a lot of counter seasonal trends for beans throughout the year.


Commitment of Traders Update
(Updated on 12.16.24)

Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds trimmed their net short position slightly, bringing it to -58,320.

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

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This message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.

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