Soybeans are working their way back to the breakdown point from the earlier in the week. Is the bottom in?
Soybeans
Thursday’s Recap
March Soybean futures settled at 966’4 Thursday, up by 13’2, or 1.39%. Total volume came in at a one month high of 441,464, with March seeing a heavy 166,725 traded. Across all maturities, open interest dropped 20,489, or 2.24%, to end the session with 895,256 outstanding. The March maturity rose 0.84% (20,489) to finish at 394,743.
Technicals
Soybean futures made new lows yesterday but reversed and finished higher which has led to some follow-through short covering in the overnight/early morning trade. Prices are right back to the breakdown point from earlier in the week, we’ve outlined that as a resistance pocket from 970 1/4-977 1/4. If the Bulls can chew through this pocket, we could see prices work back into the range that it was stuck in with a mid-point of that coming in near 986 1/4-987 1/4.
Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 970 1/4-977 1/4****, 986 1/4-987 1/4**, 1002 1/2-1006 1/2***
Pivot: 955
Support: 940–945 1/4*
Fundamental Headlines
Weekly Export Sales: Net sales of 1,424,200 MT for 2024/2025 were up 21 percent from the previous week, but down 27 percent from the prior 4-week average.
Popular Options
The Jan 920 put saw the most action with 5,710 contracts traded. Option open interest is largest for the March 1100 calls at 16,861, and the March 980 puts at 26,188.
Volatility Update
Soybean implied volatility finished moderately down as SVL fell 0.51 to end the session at 17.01. The 30-day historical volatility closed the day dropping by 1.16% to 14.62%. The SVL Skew was slightly higher with the 30-day up by 0.29, closing the session at a one week high of 0.09.
Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 12.16.24)
Below is a look at historical price averages for January soybean futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results). As with corn, December has been a historically friendlier month for soybeans. Keep in mind though that we’ve seen a lot of counter seasonal trends for beans throughout the year.
Commitment of Traders Update
(Updated on 12.16.24)
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds trimmed their net short position slightly, bringing it to -58,320.
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