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Corn Trades to Multi-Month Highs. Is the Rally Just Getting Started?

Grain Express

/ by BlueLineFutures | Leave a comment

Grain futures moved higher in Thursday’s trade which has reinvigorated the hopes and dreams of a bigger rally to start a new year. Is that realistic or is this an opportunity for sellers to pounce?

Corn


Thursday’s Recap
March Corn futures finished at a one month high of 453’6 Thursday, up 5’2 (1.17%). Overall volume was 294,280, with the March maturity seeing 176,165 traded. Total open interest ended the session at a one month high of 1,631,921, up 8,229 (0.51%). March open interest rose by 500, or 0.0653%, to 765,694.

Technicals
March corn futures were able to make new highs for the move yesterday, closing above significant resistance from 451 1/4-452 1/4. This will be a pocket the Bulls will want to defend on a closing basis, a breakdown back below yesterday’s low at 448 1/2 could start to trigger some profit taking from the recent rally. If the Bulls can keep the momentum going, another 15-20 cent rally isn’t out of the question. We wouldn’t be holding our breath for that to happen in a short amount of time though.

Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 451 1/4-452 1/4****, 471 1/2****
Pivot: 434-437 1/2
Support:425 1/2-428***, 423 1/4*, 414-416 3/4****

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Popular Options
Option trading centered around the Jan 450 calls with 6,342 traded and the March 430 puts with volume of 3,640. Calls with the most open interest are the March 450 strike (44,056), and for the puts are the March 430 strike (28,556).

Volatility Update
Implied Volatility settled moderately higher with CVL adding 0.54, to finish the day at a one month high of 19.02. Historical volatility (30-day) ended the session at nan%, unchanged on the session nan%. The CVL Skew was moderately down with the 30-day off 0.55, finishing the session at a one week low of 1.10.

Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 12.23.24)

Below is a look at historical price averages for March corn futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).

Commitment of Traders Update
(Updated on 12.23.24)

  • Managed Money saw a slight reduction in their net long position last week, dropping about 7k contracts to a net long of 159,415 contracts. Broken down that is 313,471 longs VS 159,415 shorts.

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

Performance Disclaimer

Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points that can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

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Seasonal Disclaimer

This message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.

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