Grain markets are on the verge of closing out another strong December. These are the levels to watch into the final days of the year.
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Soybeans
Friday’s Recap
Soybean futures were lower Friday with the March contract finishing the session at 989’6, dropping 7’4. Combined volume was 214,403, with the March contract seeing 104,442 change hands. Across all maturities, open interest decreased 14,571 (1.72%) to end the session with 833,441 outstanding. The March maturity rose 1.57%, or 14,571, to finish at 409,664.
Technicals
March soybean futures are right back into the old trading range after being shaken out of it earlier in the month. Resistance in this old range came in from 1003-1008 1/4, this remains intact as a near term inflection point. A close out above here and you could see technical buying accelerate prices back near 1025. We’ve been in the contrarian camp (against the popular consensus) thinking that we could see this market make a move higher despite all the bearish headwinds. On the support side of things, 982-985 is the first pocket for the Bulls to defend. A break and close below here and we could see a retest of the lows come back into play.
Technical Levels of Importance
- Resistance:1003-1008 1/4***
- Pivot: 982-985
- Support: 963 1/4**, 940–945 1/4***
Popular Options
The Feb 960 put saw the most changing hands with 2,409 contracts done. In March options, the highest volume call was in the 1040 strike with 1,421 done, and the 960 put leads with volume of 1,826. Calls with the largest open interest are the March 1100 strike (17,006), and for the puts are the March 980 strike (27,095).
Volatility Update
As measured by SVL, implied volatility ended moderately down, lower by 0.3 to close the session at 19.22. The 30-day historical volatility ended off 1.02% to a one week low of 15.07%. The SVL Skew was sharply lower with the 30-day dropping by 0.21, closing the session at 0.31.
Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 12.30.24)
Below is a look at historical price averages for January soybean futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).
Commitment of Traders Update
(Updated on 12.23.24)
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds expanded their net short position to 76,252 contracts. Broken down that is 101,568 longs VS 177,820 shorts.
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