Grain markets had a rough go through the fall but managed to round out the year with some momentum. Can that momentum continue into the new year?
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Wheat
Tuesday’s Recap
For the fourth consecutive session, Wheat futures finished higher, with the March contract settling Tuesday at 551’4, up 3’2. Across all maturities, a light 53,151 contracts were traded, with 33,827 done in the March maturity. Combined open interest decreased 1,082 (0.23%) to 460,497. March fell 2,168, or 0.83%, finishing at 258,357.
Technicals
Wheat futures were able to gain ground in the last trading day of the year, although it was with less conviction than what we saw in corn and soybeans. Resistance from 548 1/2-554 3/4 has been stout in the last two sessions, keeping it intact to start the new year. If the Bulls can chew through this pocket we could see the buying accelerate with the next resistance pocket coming in from 564 3/4-569 and the mores significant pocket from 574 1/2-577 1/2.
Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 548 1/2-554 3/4****, 564 3/4-569**, 574 1/2-577 1/2***
Pivot: 540-542
Support: 520 3/4-529 1/4***
Popular Options
Option trading centered around the March 600 calls with 1,607 traded and the March 530 puts with volume of 514. Option open interest is largest for the March 600 calls at 17,836, and the March 520 puts at 4,427.
Volatility Update
Wheat implied volatility closed the session slightly lower as WVL dropped 0.14 to finish the day at 28.52. Even on the session nan%, historical volatility (as measured by the 30-day) ended the day at nan%. The WVL Skew was slightly higher with the 30-day gaining 0.18, finishing the session at a one month high of 9.99.
Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 12.30.24)
Below is a look at historical price averages for March wheat futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).
Commitment of Traders Update
(Updated on 12.31.24)
Managed Money increased their net short position by 7,608 contracts from December 17th to December 24th, expanding their net short position to 95,009 contracts.
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