Last Trading Day of the Month, Cattle Inventory Report, and Tariff Talk
It’s officially the last trading day of the month and traders are gearing up for what could be another weekend full of exciting headlines.
Lean Hogs (April)
Lean hogs continued to work higher yesterday but selling was seen near our resistance pocket from 92.77-93.60. End of the month trade along with positioning ahead of potential tariffs could play a role in today’s price action.
Resistance: 92.77-93.60***
Pivot: 91.00-91.35
Support: 88.45**, 86.00-86.15**, 84.50**
Facing Trump tariffs on piglets and crops, Canadian farmers revise sales plans -Reuters
Canadian farmers are renegotiating livestock contracts with U.S. buyers and finding local markets for crops they previously planned to sell south of the border to minimize the economic hit from potential new U.S. tariffs.
Canadian farm exports to the United States include millions of piglets, as well as meat and crops such as wheat, oats and soybeans.
Ontario hog farmer Stewart Skinner, who sells 95% of his 40,000 pigs per year to U.S. buyers, said he has renegotiated some sales agreements so U.S. buyers take delivery of the pigs in Canada and pay the tariffs themselves when they cross the border.
“It’s the uncertainty of not knowing that forces you to completely rethink that (business) model,” said Skinner, who produces specialty hogs that have humane treatment certification required by high-end pork sellers such as Whole Foods. “The market for our pigs is in the USA, not here in Canada.”
If the U.S. imposes tariffs for the long term, he plans to stop feeding pigs to slaughter weight and to instead ship all his piglets to the U.S. Piglets sell for much less than fattened hogs, so the tariff hit is lower.
Canadian farmers and companies that sell livestock, crops and food products into the U.S. are trying to tariff-proof their businesses. Nobody wants to make a sale and be required or pressured to pay a hefty tariff, or to find U.S. buyers backing out of deals.
Canada, the world’s eighth-largest beef exporter and third-biggest pork shipper, exported C$3.5 billion ($2.43 billion) of beef and C$1.65 billion ($1.14 billion) of pork to U.S. buyers from January through November last year. About 2.6 million pigs are shipped annually from Manitoba alone to U.S. hog feeding operations, mostly in Iowa and Minnesota.
Canadian and U.S. cattle pass back and forth across the border at various ages.
Seasonal Tendency Update
(updated 1.27.25)
Below is a look at historical price averages for April futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).
Commitment of Traders Report
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net sellers of about 7.5k contracts. Their net long position stands at 90,693 contracts.
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