WTI Crude Oil Futures Hold Steady as Tariff Risks Loom

Energy Update

/ by BlueLineFutures

WTI Crude Oil Futures (March)

Yesterday’s Settlement: 72.73, up +0.11 [+0.15%]

WTI Crude Oil prices ended a volatile day little changed. Starting around 1 pm CST, Trump stated that he was ready to go ahead with the 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico. We’ve talked about these tariffs for some time, but markets took Trump’s comments as surprising at first, driving crude sharply higher. The move was promptly retraced.

While we’ve highlighted the risk of these tariffs for some time, yesterday showed that perhaps not all market participants are taking this risk very seriously.

The tariffs on Canada & Mexico remain slated to begin Saturday – Sunday.

Today, futures are higher by +0.25 [+0.35%] to 72.98

Risk into this weekend is significant for oil markets and traders should position and manage accordingly. We have the tariffs slated to start Saturday – Sunday and then the OPEC+ JMMC meeting on Monday.

There is potential that Canadian Crude Oil is excluded from the blanket tariffs, but nothing is known at this point.

The macro environment is trading risk-on, with equities and metals higher and treasuries weaker. The Dollar index is showing strength but it is more Yen weakness than broad dollar strength.

If a deal is reached today and the tariffs are avoided, there could potentially be a sharp move lower in Oil and metals pricing.

Technical Analysis:

Futures settled below our major three-star level of 72.97-73.24* again yesterday, tilting momentum to the downside. We remain neutral due to the tariff risks this weekend but our tilt is leaning bearish. If futures settle below this level again, the probability increases of the next leg in price being towards our rare, four-star level of 71.25-71.63**.

Short covering and position squaring is likely through today’s session as catalysts for potential two-way volatility are present. Risk management should remain a priority for traders.

For intraday trading, our pivot and point of balance is set at….

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

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