Grain Markets Retreat in the Overnight Trade

Grain Express

/ by BlueLineFutures

Grain Markets Retreat in the Overnight Trade

Grain markets had a wild session to start the week and month. Expect the volatility to continue offering good shorter term trading opportunities

Though the word tariff may trigger have PTSD for some, this “trade war” with Mexico and Canada was a completely different scenario than what we saw with China 8 years ago.  An agreement to secure the boarder and slow the flow of illegal drugs is a much clearer and easier offramp than trying to reach an agreement on trade deficits/surpluses.  Bringing two countries into it and making a deal with one would instantly put pressure on the other to come to the table.  These types of headlines and chess matches are likely to continue for the foreseeable future, so stay nimble and try to look at things beyond face value. 

Corn


Monday’s Recap
Monday’s Corn market was higher over a sizable trading range, with the March contract up by 6’6 (1.40%), to 488’6. Overall volume was a heavy 671,851, with March seeing 322,166 traded. Across all maturities, open interest fell 9,930 (0.49%) to end the session with 2,012,386 outstanding. The March maturity lost 2.05%, or 9,930, to finish at 666,326.
Technicals
March corn futures were able to defend 3-star support yesterday which propelled prices back towards resistance at the close. The market is seeing some follow-through buying with all eyes on 499-502 1/4 as the next line in the sand. If the Bulls can chew through and close above this pocket, we could see another leg higher to keep the trend of higher lows and higher highs intact. The December contract has been a little lack luster over the last 24-hours, but we continue to see a constructive setup there as well.

Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 499-502 1/4**
Pivot: 487-488
Support: 477 3/4-479 3/4, 469 1/4-471 1/2


Popular Options
Option trading centered around the March 500 calls with 15,184 changing hands and the March 460 puts with volume of 8,778. Option open interest is greatest for the March 500 calls at 50,145, and the March 440 puts at 19,809.

Volatility Update
As measured by CVL, implied volatility ended sharply up, gaining 1.1 to close at a one month high of 23.66. The 30-day historical volatility closed gaining 0.27% to a one month high of 19.81%. The CVL Skew was slightly down with the 30-day lower by 0.087, closing the day at 1.95.

Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 2.3.25)

Below is a look at historical price averages for May corn futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).

Commitment of Traders Update
Managed money is now approaching lofty territory holding 350,721 contracts between futures & options. Meanwhile, commercials expanded their net-short position to 324,689 contracts between futures & options, likely due to the swath of farmer selling over the course of the past three weeks. If long liquidation materializes, it will likely see a drop in prices fairly quickly before stabilizing.

Ready to dig in? 

Subscribe to our daily Grain Express for fresh insights into Soybeans, Wheat, and Corn. Get our expert technical analysis, proprietary trading levels, and actionable market bias delivered right to your inbox. 

Sign Up for Free Futures Market Research – Blue Line Futures

Sign up for a 14-day, no-obligation free trial of our proprietary research with actionable ideas! Free Trial Start Trading with Blue Line Futures Subscribe to our YouTube Channel
Email info@Bluelinefutures.com or call 312-278-0500 with any questions -- our trade desk is here to help with anything on the board!

Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500



Blue Line Futures

141 W. Jackson Blvd., Suite 2620 Chicago, IL 60604

info@bluelinefutures.com
(312) 278-0500
(F) (888) 370-2221

Quick Links
Markets
About

© 2025 by Blue Line Futures, LLC. All rights reserved.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors.

Privacy Policy Illustration by Freepik Storyset

Get in touch with us today.
Press the contact us button to reach out to us or take a look at our social media pages.

Contact Us


Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

Performance Disclaimer

Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points that can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

Research Disclaimer

All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Blue Line Futures LLC shall be construed as, or is in the nature of, a Solicitation for entering into a futures transaction. Blue Line Futures LLC does not employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.

Seasonal Disclaimer

This message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.

To top