WTI Crude Dips as Trade Tensions and Geopolitical Risks Weigh on Markets

Energy Update

/ by BlueLineFutures

WTI Crude Dips as Trade Tensions and Geopolitical Risks Weigh on Markets

WTI Crude Oil Futures (April) 

 

Yesterday’s Settlement: 70.70, up +0.30 [+0.43%]

 

WTI Crude Oil futures rallied off technical support and supply-side risks after Ukrainian forces struck the 300k+ bpd Rosneft refining facility inside of Russia, and fresh sanctions were imposed on Iran.

 

The fresh Iran sanctions are a reminder of this administration’s “maximum pressure” attitude towards Iran. 

 

Trade tensions also drove markets higher as Trump said in an Oval Office press conference that Canadian & Mexican tariffs are still planned. 

 

Also of note was Trump’s announcement that Chinese-made ships would face heightened fees at U.S. ports, raising the cost of shipping almost everything. 

 

Trump remains adamant about ending the war in Ukraine and made more comments regarding the subject yesterday, saying he was seeking “economic development” with Russia.   

 

Today, futures are lower by -0.52 [-0.74%] to 70.18

 

Bonds are markedly stronger this morning, with the 10yr Yield down almost 10bps. The Dollar is moving lower alongside precious metals and crude oil. The strong move lower in yields should jar loose some flows today.

 

The U.S. economy continues to slide with the Citi Economic Index moving below 0 for the first time since September of 2024. Economic expectations and sentiment continues to be bitten by inflation and trade tensions.   

 

The Israel-Hamas truce is set to end on Sunday, with Israel preparing for a restart of the war.  

 

Technical Analysis:

 

Our outlook is for a choppy, range-bound trade. Concrete, longer-term positioning is tough in this market, and a tactical approach is still preferred.  
 

Crude is hopefully settling into a trading range here, between our three star levels of 70.03-70.35*** and 71.34-71.70***. On a longer term trading time frame, 71.37-71.70*** is looking like a pivot, where consistent closes above this level are required for an extended bull move higher. 

 

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Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

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