WTI Crude Oil Futures Hold Support; Tactical Bullish Bias Intact

Energy Update

/ by Blue Line Futures

WTI Crude Oil Futures Hold Support; Tactical Bullish Bias Intact

WTI Crude Oil Futures (April) 

Yesterday’s Settlement: 66.36, up +0.05 [+0.08%] 

Please note that yesterday morning, we flipped our trading bias from Neutral to Neutral / Tactically Bullish. We have been Neutral since mid-January, so we wanted to highlight the shift.  

WTI Crude Oil futures finished the day little changed as markets digested macro economic shifts in Europe, the flip-flopping of President Trump’s tariff decision, and worsening U.S. – Sino relations.

Regarding Europe, there are sizeable shifts happening with the EU on the monetary and fiscal side of their macro situation. Germany has historically been steadfast in their commitment to maintaining a balanced budget and stuck to strict governmental controls regarding their fiscal spending. In response to the Trump Administration’s attitude regarding Ukraine support, Germany has broken their budget covenants and pushed through a large-scale spending package to support Europe’s military-industrial complex and Ukrainian support. The Euro has rallied in response as GDP estimates and economic activity forecasts for the EU are picking up steam. The ECB also cut rates for the sixth time yesterday but now faces tougher decisions moving forward. 

Regarding US-Sino relations, the Chinese embassy tweeted they were “Ready for a trade war or any kind of war that the U.S. wants” while simultaneously holding naval live-fire drill off the coast of Australia. A quick and easy deal with China looks tougher, which coincides with lower global GDP growth and economic activity.

President Trump backtracked on Mexico / Canada tariffs at the last minute and excluded USMCA trade goods, putting in a deadline of early April. The Trump Administration is losing credibility in regards to their tariff threats while attacking all of our Allies. The entire world is now positioned against the U.S. on trade, making negotiations tougher moving forward.

Today, April Futures are higher by +0.82 [+1.24%] to 67.18

The macro environment is trading mixed to risk / off this morning with equities moving lower off the NFP print, which was average. We highlighted the shifts in Europe at length because there are some tectonic shifts in motion regarding the Euro, the Dollar, and global investment / monetary flows. The Dollar is trading much weaker once again today, which is normally a risk-on signal. That’s not quite true in this environment. The breakdown in the Dollar should provide crude some support.

Technical Analysis:

We flipped to Neutral / Tactically Bullish in Crude yesterday as Crude futures were trading at major support lines that go back to September / October lows while global inventories remain near ten-year lows. Our confidence in the tactical bull case is not very strong due to headline risk. If we were not in an environment that featured a constant barrage of headlines, we’d be emphatically bullish at these levels in the shorter term.   

Futures are now trading back within our longer-term pivot pocket of 67.60-68.00***. A settlement above this level would build our confidence on the bull case, a settlement above yesterday’s high of 67.09 keeps us in the tactical long at full-size while a settlement below 67.09 would push us to shave some units off the trade. 

Volatility is likely to continue; prioritize risk management and keep your head on a swivel for the inevitable headline to drive markets one way or another. Sizing is key in this environment. Opportunities are endless while capital is not – stay diligent on risk-management, which includes taking profits in the intermediate term and missing some potential upside. FOMO can be a killer in these environments.

 

 

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

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