Grain Markets Retreat Following Monthly WASDE Report

Grain Express

/ by Blue Line Futures

Grain Markets Retreat Following Monthly WASDE Report

Grain markets came under pressure at yesterday’s close which has led to weakness in the overnight and early morning trade. Technicals in focus for today’s trade.

WASDE Recap

Corn


Tuesday’s Recap
Corn futures were lower Tuesday with the May contract finishing the session at 470’2, dropping by 1’6. Across all maturities, 407,110 contracts were traded, with 189,880 done in the May maturity. Total open interest rose by 1,298, or 0.0710%, to 1,830,054. May dropped 5,090 (0.70%), finishing at 724,092.

Technicals
May corn futures came within 2 1/2 cents of resistance before reversing and finishing the day in negative territory and back below our pivot pocket. The lack of new bullish news coupled with a weak close has dropped prices to the 100-day moving average, which is near our first support pocket, 461-463 3/4. A failure to hold ground here and 454 1/2-457 3/4 would be the next downside objective for Bears. I use the term “bears” loosely as this remains an environment for traders to position on both sides of the market. With that in mind, our longer-term bias is mostly neutral. The average daily trading range over the last 14 days is coming in but still elevated at 11 cents.

Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 480-484***, 486 1/2-488 1/2****
Pivot: 472 3/4-473 1/2
Support: 461-463 3/4***, 454 1/2-457 3/4***


Fundamental Notes
Corn prices were weighed down on Tuesday after the U.S. government left domestic corn inventories unchanged in a monthly supply-and-demand report – despite strong export sales and trade tensions with top buyer Mexico.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture pegged 2024-25 U.S. corn stocks at 1.54 billion bushels and exports at 2.45 billion bushels, both unchanged from February. Analysts had expected stocks to decline to 1.516 billion bushels due to robust demand, according to a Reuters poll.

Popular Options
The May 440 put saw the most action with 7,427 contracts traded. Option open interest is greatest for the July 500 calls at 36,879, and the July 450 puts at 20,107.

Volatility Update
As measured by CVL, implied volatility closed the session moderately down, losing 0.36 to end at a one week low of 22.50. Dropping by 0.0886%, historical volatility (as measured by the 30-day) ended at 24.44%. The CVL Skew settled down, lower by 0.17 to finish at 1.26, a one week low.

Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 3.10.25)

Below is a look at historical price averages for May corn futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).

Commitment of Traders Update
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net sellers of about a whopping 118k futures/options contracts, nearly all of that was long liquidation. That shrinks their net long position to 219,752.

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

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Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points that can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

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This message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.

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