Tech Weakness Meets Trade Optimism—Will Bulls Regain Control?

E-mini S&P (June) / E-mini NQ (June)

S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 5623.25, up 36.25

NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 19,870.75, up 212.25

The April Nonfarm Payrolls Report is due at 7:30 am CT. Expectations are for 138k jobs created, down from 228k in March. Wages are expected to rise +0.3% m/m and +3.9% y/y, up from 3.8% in March. Analysts see the Unemployment Rate at 4.2%, unchanged from March, a level hit twice more since the 4.3% cycle high in July.

AAPL and AMZN are both lower despite beating top- and bottom-line estimates. AAPL forecasts a $900 billion tariff headwind in Q2, and the stock is -3.5% ahead of the opening bell. AMZN is fairing a bit better, down nearly 1% after softening its Q2 guidance. It’s been a strong week for the market so far, and the pullback in each stock simply brings its 5-day tally to unchanged.

Price action held up for much of the session yesterday before sellers took it into the close. The E-mini S&P traded into support and settled at 5623.25, while the E-mini NQ perfectly back-tested rare major four-star support at 19,758. The 19,758 level is the settlement from the April 2nd tariff announcement, before the surprise tariff levels were known. We now view this less as a four-star for the strength of support, especially given that Wednesday’s settlement brings a gap at 19,658, but more for confirming or denying a continuation of newly born momentum over the last week and a half; while above here, the bulls are in the driver’s seat. The E-mini NQ is digesting earnings from four of the largest companies in the world (MSFT, META, AAPL, AMZN), and a strong close today could speak volumes. With that said, yes, there was some late session and early evening weakness, pre- and post-AAPL/AMZN, but reports that China is willing to open the door to talking to the U.S. on trade helped boost things overnight. Still, there are questions on the report’s interpretation, and jobs data is front and center. Our Pivot and point of balance will be crucial in helping to determine early session momentum; trading above…

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