Cattle Reverse and Finish Lower After Posting New Contract Highs

Livestock Round Up

/ by Blue Line Futures

Cattle Reverse and Finish Lower After Posting New Contract Highs

Cattle futures posted new contract highs but reversed to finish sharply lower. A sign of things to come or just a healthy correction?

Cattle on Feed and Cold Storage Snapshot
Cattle on Feed Snapshot
On Feed: 98.0 VS average estimate of 98.5
Placements: 97 VS average estimate of 96.8
Marketings: 97 VS average estimate of 96.7

United States Cattle on Feed Down 2 Percent

Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.4 million head on May 1, 2025. The inventory was 2 percent below May 1, 2024.

Placements in feedlots during April totaled 1.61 million head, 3 percent below 2024. Net placements were 1.56 million head. During April, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 310,000 head, 600-699 pounds were 225,000 head, 700-799 pounds were 370,000 head, 800-899 pounds were 443,000 head, 900-999 pounds were 195,000 head, and 1,000 pounds and greater were 70,000 head.

Marketings of fed cattle during April totaled 1.83 million head, 3 percent below 2024.

Other disappearance totaled 50,000 head during April, 11 percent below 2024.

Cold Storage
U.S. FROZEN BEEF STOCKS 418.147 MLN LBS APRIL 30 -USDA
Total red meat supplies in freezers were up 5 percent from the previous month but down 6 percent from last year. Total pounds of beef in freezers were down 2 percent from the previous month and down 2 percent from last year. Frozen pork supplies were up 11 percent from the previous month but down 9 percent from last year. Stocks of pork bellies were up 9 percent from last month but down 22 percent from last year.


Live Cattle (August)

August live cattle futures continued to grind higher last week, riding the 20-day moving average along the way, that will continue to be viewed as support, which comes in at 208.10 today.

Resistance: 211.00-211.725**, 214.50**
Pivot: 208.475-209.00
Support: 205.32-205.40***, 203.275-204.075****, 201.175**


Daily Cattle and Beef Summary

Cutout values were firm on Friday afternoon with choice cuts .58 higher to 361.55 and select cuts 2.37 higher to 351.32. Slaughter on Friday was reported at 97k head. The 5-area average price for live steers was reported at 229.51.

Seasonal Tendency Update
(updated 5.27.25)

Below is a look at historical price averages for August futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).

Commitment of Traders Update
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net sellers of roughly 3k futures and options contracts, snapping the 4-week streak of buying and brining the net long down to 132,564. Still lofty on historical standards.

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

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One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points that can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

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This message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.

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