The First Crop Condition Report Misses for Corn
This week’s weekly crop progress report included the first condition ratings for corn, which came in below expectations.
Corn
Tuesday’s Recap
Corn futures were lower Tuesday with the July contract finishing the session at 459’4, even. Overall volume was a light 310,745, with the July maturity seeing 153,148 change hands. Total open interest finished at a one month high of 1,653,384, up 828 (0.0501%). July open interest dropped 8,762, or 1.31%, to 661,625.
Technicals
December corn futures traded on both sides of unchanged to start the week, spending the bulk of the day under minor pressure. The market has found its footing overnight and is attempting to trade back into resistance from 463 1/4-465 1/4. If the Bulls can chew through this pocket, we could see technical momentum hep take prices back into the mid-470s. A breakout above or below Friday’s range is ultimately what we are watching for through the remainder of this week’s trade, for the next direction. Fundamentally our bias leans Bullish, let’s see if the techncials can match it.
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Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 463 1/4-465 1/4***
Pivot: 450 1/2-455 1/4
Support: 442 1/4-445 3/4**, 436-437****
Headlines
The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Tuesday rated 68% of the U.S. corn crop as good to excellent in its first condition ratings for the 2025 crop, below the average estimate of 73% in a Reuters analyst poll. Pre-report trade estimates from 14 analysts surveyed by Reuters had ranged from 64% to 78% good to excellent. The United States is the world’s largest exporter of corn, used primarily for animal feed and ethanol fuel. In its weekly crop progress report, the USDA said U.S. farmers had planted 87% of their intended corn acres by Sunday, up from 78% a week earlier and ahead of the five-year average of 85%.
Popular Options
Option trading centered around the July 480 calls with 3,601 changing hands and the Sep 380 puts with volume of 15,605. Option open interest is largest for the Dec 500 calls at 36,336, and the Dec 400 puts at 25,521.
Volatility Update
Implied Volatility closed the day higher with CVL up by 0.71, to finish the session at 25.08. Dropping by 0.17% to a one week low, historical volatility (as measured by the 30-day) closed the session at 19.86%. The CVL Skew was sharply up with the 30-day higher by 1.2, finishing the session at a one month high of 3.84.
Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 5.27.25)
Below is a look at historical price averages for December corn futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).
Commitment of Traders Update
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net sellers of roughly 18k futures and options contracts through May 13th, making them net short 103,210 contracts. This is their largest net short since last September.
