A Dud of a WASDE Report Leaves Technicals and Money Flow in Focus

Grain Express

/ by Blue Line Futures

A Dud of a WASDE Report Leaves Technicals and Money Flow in Focus

If you just looked at a daily chart (or even an intraday one) you wouldn’t have guessed there was a USDA report yesterday. The lack of movement may be frustrating for those that have hopes of a bigger directional move, while shorter term traders continue to look for opportunities.

Wheat

Thursday’s Recap
Sep Wheat futures settled at a one week low of 541’6 Thursday, down by 7’2 (1.32%). Combined volume was a heavy 189,533, with the Sep maturity seeing 65,170 traded. Overall open interest decreased by 4,954 (1.13%) to end the session with 431,785 outstanding. The Sep maturity increased by 10.58%, or 4,954, to finish at 154,351.

 

Technicals
Wheat futures continued to collapse lower in yesterday’s trade, marking the fourth straight day of declines, which came on the back of really constructive price action in the prior two weeks. The market made new lows for the move overnight, testing and so far holding our first support pocket from 521 3/4-527 1/2. A failure here and the conversation quickly turns back to a potential retest of contract lows and wheat with a possible 4-handle. To avoid this, the Bulls need to see consecutive closes back above our pivot pocket from 536-541.

Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 552-556 1/4** 569 1/4-571***
Pivot: 536-541
Support: 521 3/4-527 1/2***, 498-501 1/4***


Popular Options
Option trading centered around the July 550 calls with 1,271 done and the July 520 puts with volume of 1,513. Calls with the highest open interest are the July 600 strike (13,200), and for the puts are the July 550 strike (9,393).

 

Volatility Update

As measured by WVL, implied volatility closed the session moderately lower, down by 0.91 to finish at a one month low of 25.47. The 30-day historical volatility finished higher by 0.39% to 23.05%. The WVL Skew ended the day down, losing 0.28 to close at 5.87, a one week low.

Headlines
Weekly Export Sales: Net sales of 388,900 metric tons (MT) for the 2025/2026 marketing year


Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 6.9.25)

Below is a look at historical price averages for December wheat futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).

Commitment of Traders Update
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net buyers of roughly 600 futures/options. The second straight week of net buying from Funds.

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

Performance Disclaimer

Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points that can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

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Seasonal Disclaimer

This message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.

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