Indices Pull Back on Israel-Iran Escalation, But Key Support Holds
Tune in daily to catch Bill Baruch dissecting the day’s market happenings after the bell rings. Gain insightful analysis and stay ahead in the financial game with Bill as your guide!
Do not miss Bill Baruch’s daily video posted to his Twitter (X), LinkedIn, and Instagram after the close, follow him at @Bill_Baruch.
E-mini S&P (June) / E-mini NQ (June)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 6049.50, up 20.50
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 21,932.50, up 45.00
E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures dove modestly overnight as Israel carried out airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile facilities. Iran has vowed a response. It began sending drones towards Israel and warned it could target U.S. assets in the region. President Trump took to Truth Social this morning, saying, “I gave Iran chance after chance to make a deal. To just do it. No matter how hard they tried they couldn’t get it done. Two months ago I gave Iran a 60 day Ultimatum to “make a deal”. Today is day 61. Now they have, perhaps, a second chance.” The world now awaits further developments.
A slate of fresh June Michigan Consumer data is due at 9:00 am CT. We will be watching 1-year inflation expectations, which were erroneously high due to the political imbalance of the survey. We believe the May preliminary read hit a cycle high of 7.3% before being revised to 6.6%. Despite continually softer than expected CPI, PPI, the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator, the Core PCE Index, and the NY Fed 1-year estimate at half the value, this consumer read remained an outlier. Why is it important? The Fed believes inflation is a self-fulfilling prophecy. We believe the Fed used unknown tariff impacts to ‘wait and see,’ but at the core of this was their fear that consumers’ perception could drive inflation to be unhinged. Think about it, if you believe gasoline will be $7 a gallon next week, what are you doing this week? You’re filling up your car this week.
E-mini S&P futures closed at a new swing high yesterday, but that was quickly surrendered, trading off by as much as 2%. The E-mini NQ followed suit, and both indices have pared the worst of the losses after checking critical areas of support overnight (highlighted below). Notably, the tape responded to each support shelf, meaning the tape did not become unhinged. As today unfolds, there are two waves of resistance in the E-mini S&P that we are watching closely, and a close above will not only neutralize the selling but pave the way for higher prices, coming in at…
Want to keep up with the market?
Subscribe to our daily Morning Express for essential insights into stocks and equities, including the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and more. Get expert technical analysis, proprietary trading levels, and actionable market bias delivered straight to your inbox.