Calm Before the Storm? Crude Holds Range Ahead of OPEC

WTI Crude Oil Futures (August Futures)

Yesterday’s Settlement: 65.45, up +0.34 [+0.52%]

WTI Crude Oil futures staged a comeback from the US open through mid-morning to end the day higher.

Oil markets turned their attention back towards the Iran-Israel conflict as traders wondered whether Iran’s inventories of near-bomb-grade uranium have been depleted, and focused on whether or not Iran will cut off communication with key United Nations officials. There is speculation that if this happens, it could trigger another wave of US strikes.

Today, futures are higher by +0.42 [+0.63%] to 65.87

Futures are trading higher in the face of a stronger dollar and a continuation of rising yields this morning.

Goldman Sachs put out a note ahead of the OPEC decision, saying they didn’t expect much of a price reaction as the accelerated cuts have been priced in. This echoes our sentiment from last Friday when futures dropped on the first Bloomberg report about “outsized OPEC hikes”.

Futures are waiting on key jobs data and volatility is fairly muted this morning across sectors.

Data Releases:

Last night’s API was as follows [thousand bbls]:

Crude: +680
Gasoline: +1,920
Distillates: -3.460
Estimates for today’s EIA report are as follows [thousand bbls]:

Crude: -3,715 estimate
Gasoline: +602 estimate
Distillates: -1,030 estimate
Refinery Utilization: +0.18% estimate

Technical Analysis:

Crude oil is still trading within a tight range. The OPEC+ meeting will likely jar loose some volatility. The US Non-Farm Payrolls report will also likely lurch forward some volatility.

Futures remain above our longer-term pivot pocket, and 64.23*** represents a solid buying opportunity in our view. This morning, futures are trading out above 66.00 and nearing the near-term highs of 66.09.

For intraday trading, our pivot and point of balance is set at…