Rotation or Reversal? Key Support Holds in S&P and NQ

E-mini S&P (September) / E-mini NQ (September)

S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 6248.75, down 5.00

NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 22,692.75, down 200.50

E-mini S&P futures finished close to unchanged while the E-mini NQ fell -0.9%. However, yesterday’s story was one of rotation as the E-mini Dow gained +0.9% and the E-mini Russell ripped for as much as 2% before settling +1%. Materials and Healthcare led, posting +2.6 and +1.4%, respectively, and the top three Dow components were UNH, AMGN, and SHW. We own AMGN (+4%) in our Blue Line Capital portfolio and love the name, but do not get caught up in the broad rotation noise. Yes, it could last a week, maybe a month amid market strength, or this was the reach on underperformance in the E-mini Russell that typical comes before a garden variety pullback, which we can all agree is overdue. Still, we strongly believe the largest and strongest stocks in the market will lead the second half of the year; NVDA, MSFT, AVGO, and yes, even AAPL.

Speaking of a healthy pullback, the July 9th tariff deadline is quickly approaching, and President Trump appears to be turning up the heat on Japan. On the other hand, the administration seems hopeful of a deal with India.

E-mini S&P futures continue to trade against rare major four-star resistance aligning with the September contract record high at 6278.75-6285. Although the E-mini NQ pulled back more than the E-mini S&P intraday, they both tested and perfectly held our first wave of major three-star support, at 22,600 and 6218-6223.75, respectively. These levels remain intact and will serve as a line in the sand of sorts; below this, the range expands. Given the ongoing buoyancy, it is our Pivot and point of balance through the first hour that we will be watching most closely; continued price action above or below these levels at….