S&P & NQ Shake Off Tariff Fears—Support Now Defines the Run

E-mini S&P (September) / E-mini NQ (September)

S&P, last week’s close: Settled at 6324.25, up 49.25 on Thursday and 100.50 on the week

NQ, last week’s close: Settled at 23,062.50, up 219.50 on Thursday and 311.00 on the week

E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures surged to a record high on Thursday after job growth on the June Nonfarm Payrolls report was steady at 147k. This was in contrast to the private ADP survey released on Wednesday, which showed that 33k jobs were lost. The Unemployment Rate also fell to 4.1%, from 4.2%, which was lower than the expected 4.3%. Although immigration has had an impact on this rate, and participation in the survey fell, it will be seen as a headwind to rate cuts. The CME’s Fed Watch Tool now shows a 4.7% probability of a July cut, down from 20.7%. However, Wage Growth came in light at +0.2% m/m versus +0.3%, down from +0.4% in May, and +3.7% y/y versus +3.9%, down from 3.8%.

Price action in E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures then worked lower Thursday evening and through the 4th of July holiday session as the July 9th tariff deadline loomed. However, it became known over the weekend that while tariff letters will be sent to more than a dozen countries, some still in negotiations, tariffs now won’t take effect until August 1st; the can has been kicked again. Indices found this favorable, erasing the holiday session swoon on last night’s open. Rare major four-star resistance aligning with previous record highs at 6278.75-6285 will now be broken apart and adjusted slightly with key areas of support surrounding it. This new pocket of major three-star support will define what is potentially the next leg of this bull market and comes in at….